Editor's Note: Periodically, Stratfor publishes guidance produced for the analysis team and shares it with readers. This guidance sets the parameters we are using in our own ongoing examination and assessment of events unfolding in Turkey as anti-government protests continue. Given the importance we ascribe to Turkey's regional role and the pace of events, we consider it important that readers have access to this additional insight.
Over the past weekend, violence pervaded Turkey as police forces clashed with anti-government protesters. So far, two protesters, both of them youths, have been killed. One was hit by a taxi in Istanbul, and the other was struck by a tear gas canister in Antakya, Hatay province. Protests have become smaller and less intense since the weekend, but we will continue to evaluate the strength and sustainability of this highly divided opposition movement. The following guidance will inform our evaluations.
Maintain Analytic Discipline
Maintain discipline in evaluating the size, composition and geographic spread of protests. Social media coverage will tend to exaggerate numbers and events. The largest and most violent demonstrations, with an estimated 5,000-10,000 protesters, are continuing in Istanbul, Izmir, Ankara and, to a lesser extent, Adana. Smaller demonstrations have occurred in Antalya, Eskisehir, Yalova, Bolu, Mugla, Kayseri, Konya, Hatay, Mersin and Trabzon, where only an estimated few hundred people have turned out to protest. Keep track of any announcements that call on protesters to gather on the weekend when a larger turnout can be generated to revitalize the protests.
Remember the Silent Majority
Do not forget the silent majority. More than half the country, particularly the more conservative Anatolian interior, still supports the ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP. Most of the protesters are students and young professionals in their 20s or 30s, a demographic disposed to using social media in both nurturing and organizing the protests. Several universities, the heads of which are known to be critical of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, have postponed final exams for students in Istanbul — a development that will help generate higher turnouts. The protesters at Taksim Square will thus dominate the media's attention, but they do not yet appear to represent the majority.
Watch for Backlash
Monitor for signs of backlash against the protesters. Demonstrations in Taksim Square have affected nearby businesses, including taxi services, and have caused tourism to plummet. The more violent and disruptive these protests become — particularly during nighttime riots, when automobiles have been burned and buildings attacked — the more the protesters risk being rebranded as criminals by AKP supporters. Popular support could validate stronger crackdowns.
Consider the Divided Opposition
Bear in mind the deep divisions within the opposition movement. The protesters represent a highly fractured assortment of urban middle-class Kemalists and secular elites who identify with the Republican People's Party, or CHP; young environmentalists backed by older generations of leftists; more liberal members from within the AKP who believe Erdogan has become too powerful; Kurdish supporters of the Peace and Democracy Party, or BDP, who demand Kurdish rights; disgruntled businessmen who believe the AKP's business patronage network is corrupt; far-right ultra-nationalists from the Nationalist Movement Party, or MHP; minority Alevis, whom Erdogan has offended by naming the planned third Bosporus bridge after Sultan Selim I, the Ottoman sultan responsible for massacring their Alevi ancestors; and members of the influential moderate Islamist Gulen movement, who are now openly moving against the AKP. An opposition movement this divided will have trouble enduring as a cohesive movement, especially without a strong personality to bind it together.
Monitor the Turkish Media
Keep track of the political current in the Turkish media. While news outlets such as Hurriyet have become emboldened to criticize the AKP again, newspapers once considered very close to the AKP, such as Yeni Safak, have prominently featured columnists openly sided with the protesters. NTV of the Dogus Group and CNN Turk, a partnership of Time Warner and Dogan Media, initially ignored the protests only to start covering them June 3. (Dogus Group and Dogan Media both have strained relationships with the AKP and have had to tread more carefully in recent years.) Gulenist news agency Zaman Media, meanwhile, announced June 3 that it would part ways with the state-owned Anatolia news agency, citing long-time frustration with Anatolia's alleged ethical shortcomings. This is a big economic hit to the news agency, which generates a majority of revenue from subscriptions despite its nominal affiliation with the state. The increasingly exposed split between the Gulen movement and the AKP raises questions as to whether the Gulenists will channel their media and business energies toward an alternative to the AKP or even Erdogan himself.
Pay Attention to Business Community
Taking advantage of the protest climate, the 250,000-strong Confederation of Public Workers' Union notably has called for a strike from June 4 to June 5 to demand higher wages and better working conditions. The union has had prior disputes with the government over the arrests of its members. Many businesses will likely be wary of moving against the AKP openly, but watch closely for the statements and actions of Turkey's influential business associations and other large unions in reaction to the protests.
Watch the Military
Watch the military's reactions to the protests. Military personnel reportedly have distributed gas masks to protesters in Istanbul and have taken in injured protesters at the military hospital near Taksim. The military will likely try to avoid creating a security situation in which it would be called on to intervene. Though unlikely at this stage, look for signs indicating a more active and unified role in supporting the protesters. The AKP has neutralized the military's role in Turkey in recent years, but the military could see an opportunity develop to regain some of that lost clout.
Track Kurdish Participation
Watch the Kurdish camp of protesters. During weekend demonstrations, pro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy supporters stood alongside their nationalist political rivals to protest the government. Kurdish involvement in the protests has raised doubts that Erdogan will be able to count on their votes for a constitutional referendum, which would enable him to run for president in 2014. Nationalist rhetoric is starting to drive some of these Kurdish supporters away from the protests. The Kurdistan Workers' Party may also try to leverage this popular movement against Erdogan in its own increasingly troubled peace talks with the government.
