Ongoing research into new varieties, or cultivars, of wheat and other staple grains is necessary because of changing global demographics. The global population growth rate is projected to slow in the coming decades, but the world's population is still expected to exceed 9 billion by 2050. Along with this increase, the population as a whole is becoming more urban, with a higher percentage in the middle class. Increasing urbanization means a higher percentage of the population will become more susceptible to price shocks, especially in poor regions, as more people become net food consumers instead of producers. Urban populations also consume more premade and convenience food, resulting in higher overall consumption levels. Growing middle classes shift consumption patterns as more of the population consumes increasing amounts of protein. This meat requires additional feed, which also raises the demand for staple grains.
Agricultural production will have to adapt to meet this growing demand. The burden will largely fall on methods that can increase yields, or on plants able to grow in less-than-optimal soil. Modern efforts to increase global production of staple crops began with the Green Revolution in the middle of the 20th century, an initiative that spread techniques and technologies used in industrialized nations — including pesticides, fertilizers and improved seed varieties — to the developing world. Yields in many developing nations skyrocketed, allowing places like Mexico, India and the Philippines to substantially increase their agricultural productivity. The years since the 1960s have seen steady increases in the global average yields of major staple grains, but the rate of growth has decreased slightly over the last 10 years, especially in developed regions.
But traditional methods of selective breeding —for example, crossing plants with desired traits — have been aided by scientific advances that allow for the detection of specific genes. Such identification allows for more targeted selection of the specific varieties to cross, which could help boost future yields. Another option to increase yields could involve using genetically engineered or genetically modified plants, defined as the controlled transfer of genes between unrelated species that would not be possible via traditional crossbreeding.
The label of genetically modified crops, however, is attached to ongoing political, environmental and social controversy. Numerous countries, including most in Europe, have banned genetically modified crops at some level. Cost and availability can limit the widespread use in developing nations of seeds from large companies like Monsanto and Syngenta, which control the majority of genetically modified seeds. Most currently available genetically engineered crops are targeted toward herbicide tolerance. Still, researchers in academia, national laboratories and industrial facilities continue to develop new variations with necessary traits through a variety of methods in an effort to hike up production.
Increased yield and robustness (for example, plants' ability to survive in subpar conditions) will be necessary traits moving forward. There is limited potential for land expansion, since most fertile uncultivated land is used for non-agricultural activities. The majority of open land has soil or terrain constraints requiring more robust grain varieties. Which cultivar of wheat, or any other grain, is most successful is highly dependent on the environment it is planted in. There are already more than 300 cultivars of wheat in North America alone. Because of the specific characteristics required for successful growth in different types of land, a single solution to combat growing food demand is unlikely. Rather, numerous regional solutions will need to work together to maintain constant, albeit gradual, growth.
The goal of boosting global agricultural production cannot be achieved with a single solution. Different climates and soil conditions throughout the world will likely require different modifications to increase yields. Researchers in the United Kingdom announced May 11 that they had developed a new strain of wheat that in early trials showed the potential to increase crop yields by 30 percent in some cases. The new strain was created by crossing a modern wheat strain with an ancient variety of grass thought to be an ancestor of modern wheat, and the production improvement was attained in the cool, damp conditions present in the United Kingdom. In 2012, researchers in Australia employed a similar technique, producing a strain of wheat especially robust in salty soil.
The announcement of such strains of cereal crops can give rise to images of decreased food prices and increased food supply. But there are limitations, in part due to climate variation around the world. These constraints make it likely that global average crop yield will gradually increase over time, rather than in one large jump. While perhaps not as exciting as a single big breakthrough, such gradual increases are probably all that will be necessary to keep up with the demand of a growing population.
