Ukraine has been negotiating with the European Union for several years over closer integration with the bloc. The association agreement — which includes bringing a country's judicial, electoral and legal processes in line with EU norms — is the political arm of the integration process, while the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement embedded within the association agreement represents the economic component. These agreements serve as the primary platform for the European Union to bring countries not yet ready to begin formal accession — whether for economic or political reasons — closer to the bloc. This is especially true for former Soviet countries in the European Union's eastern periphery that the bloc has targeted with the Eastern Partnership Program, including Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova and the three Caucasus states of Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Of these countries, Ukraine is the most important for the European Union. With the largest population and economy of the former Soviet Union after Russia, Ukraine is a significant industrial and agricultural producer and offers the Europeans a sizable market. Moreover, Ukraine's strategic location and its role as a key transit state for Russian energy exported to Europe makes close coordination between Brussels and Kiev important. The two sides have been discussing EU participation in projects to upgrade and modernize Ukraine's aging energy infrastructure. And given that Ukraine has a stronger Western orientation than stalwart Russian allies within the Eastern Partnership program like Belarus and Armenia, the European Union has a greater chance of success with Kiev than with most of the other target states.
Obstacles to Integration
However, there have been many complications in bringing Ukraine closer to the European Union. Although Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich has made EU integration one of his official foreign policy objectives, he has shown greater interest in consolidating power domestically. This consolidation process has included sidelining political opponents — particularly former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko, who was imprisoned shortly after Yanukovich came into power in 2010. The Europeans have seen this as a major breach in democratic practices, and Yanukovich's consolidation of power has been the largest impediment to progress on the association and free trade agreements. While Ukraine was set to sign these agreements back in 2011, it was only able to get the European Union to initial the agreements, with a signature pending until Timoshenko's release and demonstrable progress in other areas of reform.
There are other impediments beyond Ukraine's domestic political sphere. First, the European Union has had to compete with Russia, which has its own designs on Ukraine and has an interest in undermining any Ukrainian efforts at Western integration. Second, the European Union is divided on the issue. Countries like Lithuania and Poland, which have historical and strategic interests in the country, are strong advocates of Ukraine's integration into the bloc, but other countries in Western Europe — particularly Germany, which has a strong economic relationship with Russia — have been more lukewarm. Therefore, the preference over the speed and method of integrating Ukraine into the European Union is not uniform throughout the 27-member bloc.
Europe's Continuing Efforts
Still, this has not prevented the advocates of Ukraine's EU integration to continue trying to bring Kiev closer to the bloc. Lithuania, which will hold the EU rotating presidency beginning in July, has made the signing of Ukraine's association agreement during the November Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius a priority of its presidency. Vilnius therefore has relaxed the requirements and timeline for Kiev to show progress toward this goal.
Lithuania's move comes as Ukraine has shown signs of progress, including the parliament's adoption of a package of anti-corruption legislation in line with the EU requirement of economic-structural reforms and the release of another major Yanukovich political opponent, former Interior Minister Yuri Lutsenko, from prison. Ukraine is also in the process of reforming its energy sector in line with EU norms; a parliamentary vote on the issue is scheduled within the next two weeks. Kiev has also sought to strengthen its energy ties to certain European countries such as Poland, Hungary and Slovakia.
However, Germany has continued to press for the release of Timoshenko before the association and free trade agreements are signed — something Yanukovich's administration has so far been unwilling to do. The extension given to Ukraine opens the possibility for movement on the Timoshenko issue; indeed, Kiev recently has indicated that it might be willing to consider pardoning the former prime minister before the Vilnius summit. However, Yanukovich is not likely to give in on the politically sensitive issue unless the European Court of Human Rights rules that she should be released or the Europeans increase economic pressure on Ukrainian officials in the coming months. These dynamics, and the Ukrainian government's decision on how to move forward, will make the next six months crucial in determining the future of Ukraine's relationship with the European Union and, consequently, its ties with Moscow.
