As a Category 1-equivalent storm, Mahasen is not unusually strong. By the time it hits land, it is projected to have winds of 129 kilometers (80 miles) per hour. Storm surges, which flood coastal cities, typically are the most dangerous aspect of tropical storms, but it is likely that a wall of water no higher than 1.5 meters will hit Chittagong. However, heavy rains associated with the storm likely will result in some inland flooding.
The relative mildness of Mahasen belies the potential economic damage it could inflict on the burgeoning Bangladeshi economy. Over the past decade, the country's gross domestic product has doubled. A robust textile manufacturing sector has developed in part due to rising manufacturing costs in nearby China. In fact, manufacturing accounts for 30 percent of Bangladesh's gross domestic product, which was $112 billion in 2011. Along with growing manufacturing, Bangladesh relies on its domestic agriculture sector — the country's largest employer — to support its massive and dense population.
Chittagong, Bangladesh's biggest port and second-largest city, is an essential part of Bangladesh's industrial and manufacturing sector. According to the city’s Chamber of Commerce, it accounts for roughly 10 percent of the country's gross domestic product, 40 percent of its industrial output and 80 percent of its maritime trade. It is difficult to estimate precisely how much economic damage the storm will cause, but Cyclone Sidr in 2007 — admittedly a larger storm, classified as a Category 5-equivalent storm at its peak — caused some $1.7 billion in damage.
More Than Economics
This is foreboding for a country in which more than one-third of the population lives below the poverty line — and near sea level. Rains could damage infrastructure, including roads and inland waterways, along which more than 90 percent of Bangladesh's goods are transported to Chittagong.
But the ramifications of Mahasen could be more than just economic. The storm will test the government's ability to bring basic services back online as it manages social stability. Already Bangladesh has seen violent protests over working conditions and judicial hearings against controversial religious leaders. An insufficient government response — perceived or real — could further aggravate social unrest.
Sometimes these kinds of situations have geopolitical ramifications. Such was the case in Myanmar in 2008, when Rakhine state, a remote area wracked by religious violence, was struck by a cyclone. Partly because the state is so remote, Naypyidaw had little influence in Rakhine and could not provide adequate relief to the area. As a result, Myanmar opened up somewhat to the West, primarily in the form of relief operations.
Weather can be unpredictable, of course, and Mahasen may not be the ultimate test for Dhaka's ability to ensure economic stability amid disaster relief and social management. But cyclones are common to the region, and even though Bangladesh and Myanmar are likely to become more trade-competitive, harsh weather will continue to threaten supply chain stability and the government's ability to provide safety.
