Moldovan politics have been in disarray since March 5, when Prime Minister Vlad Filat lost his post after a vote of no confidence. The vote stemmed from a corruption scandal that exposed divisions within the Alliance for European Integration, a three-party coalition that had ruled the country since parliamentary elections in November 2010. The bloc's two other leaders — Democratic Party head and Parliamentary President Marian Lupu and Liberal Party head Mihai Ghimpu — have also suffered setbacks in recent weeks. Parliament voted on April 25 to dismiss Lupu from his post, and Filat said the formation of any new coalition would take place without Ghimpu's party.
The Alliance for European Integration has thus essentially been dismantled, and new elections appear inevitable. The opposition Communist Party, which lost power in November 2010, has sought to take advantage of the growing divisions within the ruling alliance. Indeed, with 42 seats in the 101-member parliament, the Communists provided many of the votes necessary to oust Filat and Lupu from their positions and create the current political stalemate. Whether the Communists can make a full political comeback remains to be seen.
Russia, Europe and Internal Constraints
Given Moldova's strategic location in the borderlands of Russia and Europe, the political crisis in Chisinau will have implications beyond the small country, regardless of which parties gain power. Until recently, Moldova was touted as a success story for the European Union's Eastern Partnership program, which seeks to develop ties with former Soviet states on the EU periphery by promoting democracy and transparency. Chisinau has also made progress toward reaching an association and free trade agreement with Brussels, but Moldova's internal political feuding, combined with Parliament's weakening of the judiciary, appears to be distancing the government from Europe.
Russia stands to gain most from Moldova's political paralysis. Moscow has long backed Moldova's Communists and faced a setback when the Alliance for European Integration took power. The Kremlin retains significant influence in the country through its military presence in Transdniestria, a sliver of land east of the Dniester River that broke away from Moldova after the fall of the Soviet Union and has long been a de facto satellite of Russia. But Moscow has struggled to maintain political influence elsewhere in Moldova over the past few years, while the ruling coalition in Chisinau has sought to strengthen economic and security ties with EU countries, especially Romania. The fracturing of the Alliance for European Integration presents Russia with an opportunity to regain some of its political influence in Moldova, whether through the Communist Party or perhaps a new arrangement with former factions of the now-defunct ruling coalition.
Nevertheless, fundamental political and cultural divides in Moldova will likely prevent the country from shifting its orientation toward either Europe or Russia, and Brussels and Moscow can do little to overcome such factors. Moreover, recent polling showed at least some overlapping support for both Europe and Russia — 51 percent of Moldovans expressed support for joining the European Union and 52 percent supported Russia's Customs Union. However, when asked to choose between the two alliances, 19 percent picked Europe, 17 percent picked the Customs Union and more than 60 percent said they were undecided. Such splits in public opinion indicate that any government in Moldova — particularly a divided one — will find meaningful integration with either bloc difficult at best.
