National elections in Nigeria will be held in April 2015 and Jonathan has not stated whether he intends to run, but he has been deemed eligible by Nigeria's High Court in Abuja to seek re-election if he so desires. Jonathan's candidacy is a significant political controversy in Nigeria because it violates the spirit of the power-sharing agreement between the north and the south that has been in effect since Nigeria's transition to democracy in 1999.
Since then, Nigeria has been ruled as a de facto one-party state under the People's Democratic Party, with the consent of the country's northern and southern elite. After taking office as vice president in 2007 as part of a ticket with then-President Umaru Yaradua, a northerner, Jonathan unexpectedly became president when Yaradua died of natural causes in 2010. Since the southerners had held the office for the eight years before Yaradua's election, northerners felt it was their turn to hold the presidency and that Yaradua's premature death had cheated them out of it. While Jonathan's ascension to the presidency was constitutionally legitimate, the constitution also permits a president to be elected to two terms, meaning the northerners may not have another chance at the presidency until 2019.
The prospect of another term under Jonathan and the People's Democratic Party's dominance of Nigerian politics more generally have galvanized the opposition, which recently combined forces under newly founded All Progressives Congress. Conversely, militants from Jonathan's home region of the Niger Delta have threatened war should anything happen to Jonathan, presumably including the ruling party denying him a chance to run for another term. All this is occurring at a time of increased violence in northern Nigeria instigated by Islamist militant group Boko Haram.
Faced with the threat of sustained militant activity and a more unified opposition movement, the People's Democratic Party is trying to figure out how to retain its political pre-eminence. Jonathan is keeping his re-election options open, at the very least to avoid losing his influence and leverage against the party and the parliament by announcing he will not stand for another term. But Jonathan is working to undermine and isolate Amaechi, the governor of Rivers state. Rivers state is the largest oil producer in Nigeria, making it the rough equivalent of the U.S. state of Texas in terms of its political influence within its country. Consequently, the governorship of the state is a very high-profile position in Nigerian politics. In addition to opposing Amaechi's re-election as chairman of the cross-political party Nigerian Governors Forum, the People's Democratic Party has made efforts to suspend and replace Amaechi loyalists with Jonathan loyalists within the Rivers state government.
Jonathan is probably trying to undermine Amaechi because the Rivers state governor likely aspires to higher office, which can come only at Jonathan's expense. Though Amaechi has not officially declared his candidacy (nor has Jonathan spoken about a possible successor), campaign posters for Amaechi running as the vice presidential candidate on the People's Democratic Party ticket with Jigawa state Gov. Sule Lamido have been reported in northern Nigeria. By party custom, a two-term governor like Amaechi cannot stand for a third term in 2015. At the same time, given the national prominence he already enjoys, Amaechi is likely calculating that he has an opening to advance his political career but only through supporting the northerners in their bid to recover control of the presidency.
Indeed, Jonathan is all too aware of such a situation. Jonathan himself became governor of Bayelsa state to replace Diepreye Alamieyeseigha, who was impeached in 2005. Alamieyeseigha had supported the successful effort by then-Vice President Atiku Abubakar, a northerner from Adamawa state, to have Nigeria's parliament block then-President Olusegun Obasanjo's bid to amend the constitution and remove the presidential two-term limit. Alamieyeseigha likely hoped he would be named Abubakar's vice presidential running mate for his support but was impeached in what is widely viewed as a case of political retaliation orchestrated by Obasanjo. Obasanjo, unable to run for the third term, selected Yaradua to run for president and Jonathan as his running mate.
Jonathan clearly wants to retain influence if not the presidency after 2015, and Amaechi's ambitions can be politically dangerous to Jonathan and his loyalists. Amaechi's record in Rivers state is widely viewed as successful — delivering infrastructure improvements, for example — whereas Jonathan has few accomplishments he can point to and has seen northern Islamist militancy grow dramatically during his presidency.
If Amaechi became vice president in a northern-led administration, that position would still be enough to secure the patronage money and jobs needed to keep militancy in check in the oil-rich Niger Delta. Amaechi's willingness to go along with such a plan would empower the northern elite, especially in the northeastern region that has aspired to the presidency since Abubakar held the vice presidency. This will come with a political expectation that northern politicians constrain Boko Haram, as southern politicians have been able to do with Niger Delta militants during Jonathan's presidency.
Yet perhaps most dangerous to Jonathan, the Lamido-Amaechi ticket is a plausible one because it would represent both north and south and could assuage northerners who want the presidency while also keeping a Niger Delta politician in power to prevent a backlash in the oil-producing region. Since both politicians are members of the People's Democratic Party, it would require no fundamental shift in the entrenched party control over the machinery of government while still maintaining the power-sharing agreement that has ruled Nigeria since 1999 — a much more appealing prospect to the ruling party than losing power to an opposition party because of Jonathan's declining popularity and unwillingness to step aside for the northerners.
Editor's Note: An earlier version of this analysis misstated the position of Sule Lamido.
