A bipartisan group of eight leading U.S. senators on Wednesday officially filed the most comprehensive immigration reform bill since 1990, opening the door for the United States to address an issue that will help to shape the country's economic and demographic future. The bill links the issue of border security with that of immigration and will require the U.S. Department of Homeland Security to significantly ramp up its monitoring of the U.S. border over the next 10 years. It would make it possible for illegal immigrants currently in the country to seek legal residency and eventually citizenship. Finally, and perhaps most important, the bill would shift the composition of the inflow of legal immigrants, increasing quotas for highly skilled individuals and constraining the number of visas available to people whose family members are U.S. citizens. 

What is a Geopolitical Diary? George Friedman explains.

The history of U.S. immigration policy is necessarily long and controversial. Not only is the United States the biggest economy in the world, it is also the largest recipient of immigrants. Until the middle of the 20th century, Europeans accounted for the majority of emigrants to the United States. Since that time, immigrants from the rest of the Americas — in particular from Mexico and Central America — have come to form the largest demographic in illegal and legal immigration, followed by Chinese and Indian immigrants.

Immigration law has been used to control the legal entry of people based on a wide range of factors. These include placing quotas on nationalities and forbidding the entry of polygamists and political extremists. At the same time, U.S. immigration law has been used to encourage the entry of people with specific skill sets. These efforts include the Immigration Nurses Relief Act of 1989, which granted permanent residency to foreign-born nurses during a national nurse shortage in the United States. In 1942 the United States negotiated an agreement with Mexico during an agricultural labor shortage. This agreement, known as the Bracero program, allowed millions of Mexican workers to enter the United States between the time the program was implemented and when it ended in 1964. The program opened the door for significant Mexican migration based on family reunification. What appears to be a more contemporary version of that program — a temporary worker permit specifically designed to integrate migrant agricultural workers — was included in the bill introduced Wednesday.

Though each new wave of immigration brings with it political and social controversy, the United States' ability to integrate new populations gives it a distinct advantage over many other developed countries. In the first place, Latin American immigrant populations tend to have higher fertility rates than the national average. This allows the United States to maintain a population large enough to drive the world's largest economy — in stark comparison with Europe, which is set to experience a notable aging and shrinking of its population. Legal immigrants contribute to the country's tax base. Even illegal immigrants help fill out and stabilize the labor market.

Immigration reform could also contribute to another U.S. advantage, namely its ability to attract talented and innovative individuals. Many students from around the world come to study in the United States, but legal restrictions prevent them from staying and working in the country. The proposed system appears designed to help keep more highly educated foreigners in the United States, a country that depends on technological innovation to create high-skilled, high-value jobs. The generation and protection of intellectual property is a strategic national objective amid rising international competition, and if the proposed law successfully increases high-skilled labor immigration, it will contribute significantly to U.S. competitiveness by attracting skilled workers and thinkers from around the world.

The international impact of this proposal will be felt most keenly in Mexico, where U.S. President Barack Obama is set to visit in May. Although immigration from Mexico has slowed in the wake of the financial crisis, Mexicans make up about two-thirds of the estimated 11 million illegal immigrants in the United States. The Mexican government has long made it a priority to find a way to normalize immigrant status. It also has an interest in encouraging population flows that generate billions of dollars worth of remittances annually to Mexico.

The current bill highlights the tight relationship between the immigration issue and the challenge of border security. In recent years, violence in Mexico has worried U.S. policymakers, and although the border will never be sealed, efforts to strengthen border enforcement address land migration from Mexico. For this effort, the United States will have to continue to work closely with the Mexican government. The fact that immigration reform is attached to the new border security initiative will sweeten the deal for Mexico during negotiations with the United States.

Ultimately, no single immigration bill will end the issues tied to immigration in the United States. But each reform makes strategic changes to the body of immigration law — changes that are tailored to the global circumstances of the times. For the United States, the big question now is about global competitiveness, and any reform to immigration will seek to address that question.

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