The Greater Caucasus mountain range runs for about 800 kilometers from the Black Sea to the Caspian Sea, where Dagestan is located, and forms part of the border between Russia, Georgia and Azerbaijan. The core of the mountain range is based on the Glavny and Bokovoy ranges, which include the highest peaks, some exceeding 5 kilometers in height. However, most of the militant activity is not located along these ranges, although smuggling activity does take place around them, but in the region to the north known as the cuesta of the northern Caucasus.

The cuesta is the more gently sloped lower edge of the mountain region that consists of peaks that are only about half as high as those in the main ranges, where mobility is less difficult and weather elements are more bearable. Dagestan is located on the edge of this northern cuesta on the easternmost edge at the Caspian Sea. As a result, it is made up of both mountainous highlands and coastal flatlands. The presence of international borders as a man-made division is another advantage for militants, who can seek refuge or obtain resources across the border.

The climate and resulting weather conditions in Dagestan diverge from other areas in the Russian Caucasus due to its location on the edge of the mountain range. Winter in the western part of the mountain range lasts only three months, from December to February, while to the east in Dagestan it lasts five months, from November to March. However, in the highest regions of the Caucasus, winter conditions can last for seven months, from October to April. Temperatures that can drop as low as minus 20 degrees Celsius (minus 4 degrees Fahrenheit) make these winters very harsh, and snow complicates mobility in the mountainous areas.

Dense cloud cover during the winter periods also makes observation by air assets difficult in the region. Even during the summer season, snowfall, storms and clouds or fog in higher mountain regions can create very difficult circumstances for operations by militants or government forces opposing them. Even when these conditions are not present, the complex topography and vegetation, which consists of deciduous forests, put limitations on the ability of Russian or Dagestani security forces to combat militancy in the region.

Beyond the geographic features of the area, the human terrain has also heavily influenced the conflict in Dagestan and the shape militancy has taken there. Home to more than 100 distinct ethnic groups, Dagestan is an extremely diverse region. However, unlike the conflict in neighboring Chechnya, which is more ethnically homogenous, militancy in Dagestan is not focused on achieving independence from Russia. Instead, militancy has primarily consisted of internal battles between ethnic or jihadist groups and Russian or Dagestani security forces, and it has rarely resulted in attacks outside Dagestan or against the central government in Moscow. (Chechen militants, on the other hand, have repeatedly launched such attacks.)

Wars between the Caucasus republics have also shaped militancy in Dagestan. The first war, in 1994, was sparked by a Chechen invasion of Dagestan, prompting the creation of a Dagestani resistance movement. However, as the Russian military attempted to suppress the crisis in the Caucasus, a nationalist Islamist movement emerged in Dagestan, some of which had links to similar movements in other Russian Caucasus republics as well as the transnational jihadist movement. More recently, militancy has devolved to focus on local criminal activity rather than the global jihadist agenda. The other republics, including Chechnya, have seen similar shifts, but because Chechnya is more ethnically cohesive, its militant movements have been more organized, successful and far-reaching compared to Dagestan's. That cohesion, though, has made the Chechen militants an easier target for Russian and Chechen security forces than the fractured Dagestani groups, which are more dispersed and limited to Dagestan itself.

Militant Hideout Display [nid:195789]

Districts and Topography in Dagestan

The human terrain of Dagestan has also influenced the way that militants use the local topography. While the militants' training camps and armories are often located in the mountains and forests of the region, the militants themselves do not settle in those areas but instead seek the cover of local populations and live among them in their villages after acquiring supplies or training in the mountains. Russian air assets have bombed the training camps in the mountains, but by avoiding spending too much time there, militants force Russian security personnel to enter the villages. Such operations typically target specific individuals and focus on gathering intelligence, which is difficult for outsiders to conduct among the ethnically distinct populations.

Militant operations are not concentrated in any one area in Dagestan. While activity in the districts of Karabudakhkentsky and Derbentsky near the Azerbaijani border make it seem as if the mountainous edges of the Caucasus facilitate militant activity there, the rise of militant activity over the past year in Kizilyurtovsky district north of the mountainous region demonstrates this is not necessarily the case. Being home to deciduous forests as well as several waterways that enable mobility, Kizilyurtovsky district's physical geography is able to protect militants from security forces.

Apart from the flash point in Kizilyurtovsky district, Khasavyurt and Kazbekovsky districts have also seen upticks in militant activity recently. These are located along the border with Chechnya, where tensions and militancy originating from Chechnya, as noted above, at times influence the conflict in Dagestan. Furthermore, jihadist militancy, which has historically emerged from Karabudakhkentsky district, has been increasing in Kizilyurtovsky district, and the security situation in the republic remains unsettled. Because of Dagestan's divided ethnic makeup and geographic characteristics, militant activity is difficult to predict but is unlikely to subside any time soon.

RANE
SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Expert analysis when it matters most.

Get access to RANE's decision-grade geopolitical intelligence.