Merabishvili, who was the country's prime minister until losing in parliamentary elections in October 2012, did not elaborate on what he meant by a drastic political change. The comments were made during a campaign rally in the town of Bagdati in support of the United National Movement's candidate in the parliamentary by-elections scheduled for April 27. When asked if this rally would be the time that the party would announce its candidate for the presidential election set for October, Merabishvili said that there will be "more interesting news than that."
These vague and ominous statements come in the midst of a significant internal power struggle between the political camps of Saakashvili and Ivanishvili. Saakashvili, who came into power in the 2003 Rose Revolution, had dominated the country's political scene for nearly a decade. However, in 2011 Ivanishvili — a tycoon who made his fortune in Russia — emerged as the first formidable challenge to the president since he took power. Using his financial resources and image as a political outsider who is in favor of building the economy and against corruption, Ivanishvili was able to cobble together a number of previously fractured opposition parties into what became known as the Georgian Dream movement. The starkest change Ivanishvili campaigned on was a plan to normalize economic relations with Russia, which had been virtually frozen since the 2008 Russo-Georgian war. The Georgian Dream movement ran against Saakashvili's United National Movement party in parliamentary elections and won with just over 50 percent of the vote.
Since then, Ivanishvili has been consolidating power at the expense of Saakashvili and his party. This has included giving greater strength to the parliament at the presidency's expense, with a constitutional change to this effect (planned before Ivanishvili's victory) coming into force by October 2013. This consolidation has also involved targeting many Saakashvili loyalists in a number of important positions in the country's economic, judicial and security sectors, with many being dismissed from their posts and a number of officials facing trials and detentions (possibly including Saakashvili in the future). In the meantime, there has been a lot of preliminary movement to repair ties with Russia in the economic sphere, though Ivanishvili has said that his government still officially supports Georgia's Western orientation.
All of this has been of extreme concern to Saakashvili, who has seen his political position weaken domestically and has warned of growing ties with Russia coming at the expense of Georgia's strong alignment with the West, particularly NATO. Saakashvili, having already served two terms as president, is not eligible to run for a third term. Therefore, the upcoming presidential election will show whether his party can maintain strength and relevance or if it will fall back into a political system dominated by Ivanishvili and his party at nearly all levels.
In this context, the United National Movement's April 19 rally can be seen as a move by Saakashvili and his party to maintain relevance. If the party can get a significant number of people on the streets (party officials have estimated that 80,000 will attend), this could show that the United National Movement still has a wide range of support and that Ivanishvili's camp still has a formidable political challenger, not only in the parliament but among the public as well. It could also put pressure on Ivanishvili, whose political experience is very limited and whose ability to respond to major protests criticizing his leadership (which this rally is likely to do) is so far untested.
There is speculation that the announcements the United National Movement plans to make at the rally could include a decision by Saakashvili to hold early elections. While Saakashvili technically has the power to do this, it would be a very risky move given that the Georgian Dream election victory was recognized as free and fair, and Saakashvili said he would not call for early polls. There are also reports that the United National Movement could try to provoke violence on the streets, though this speculation came from representatives of the Georgian Dream movement, likely in an attempt to undermine the rally. However, the expected participation of some Georgian Dream supporters could create tension during the rally.
It is also possible that the rally could pave the way for a clearer vision and more direct plan for how the United National Movement could challenge the Georgian Dream in the years ahead. In this case, it is telling that Merabishvili was the one to make the ambitious and vague statements for the rally, because he was seen as a likely successor to Saakashvili in the lead up to the party's defeat in parliamentary elections and amid Saakashvili's slumping popularity. The rally will be an important test for Georgia's domestic political state of affairs, with implications for the direction of the country's foreign policy.
