As Myanmar looks to transition away from isolation and an era characterized by military rule, events at a commemorative event Wednesday may have been discouraging to many. Wednesday marked the 68th anniversary of Myanmar's Anti-Fascist Revolution Day, the beginning of the uprising against Japanese occupation during World War II in 1945. The anniversary has evolved into an honorary event for Myanmar's armed forces, or Tatmadaw, in the country's post-colonial history since the junta era. Like in years past, the event this year marked another opportunity for the military to portray its strength and power.
In a symbolic gesture, 6,000 troops — accompanied by artillery, tanks and jets — marched at the Three Kings Monument in the capital of Naypyidaw. Meanwhile, Commander in Chief Min Aung Hlaing, in an address to soldiers and a national audience, reaffirmed Tatmadaw's leading role in national politics and the country's fledgling democratic process. He called on the military to guard the Constitution, which anchors the military's supremacy and is currently under heated debate for revision.
Perhaps more notable was the fact that prominent opposition leader and Nobel Peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi was in attendance for the first time. Her presence, her controversial role in recent ethnic tensions and her statement lauding the army’s role was interpreted by many to suggest that she was unable to lead the country's democratic transition and instead was seeking rapprochement with the military government.
At a time when the country is looking to open up to the world, the message sent by the anniversary celebration seemed discouraging. Indeed, as people are focusing on the government's evolving power structure and wondering whether opposition leaders could come into power through this transition, acts like this could indicate that the military never intended to relinquish its power over national politics, thereby raising doubts about the country's transformation process.
Myanmar's national character is defined by its geography. The role of the army in national politics is bound to the country's unfriendly geography and complex ethnic and racial makeup. Bordering China to the north, India to the west and heavily influenced by both, Myanmar also borders the Indian Ocean, which represents opportunities for trade and investment, but also possible threats to its national independence and unity. Indeed, Myanmar's colonial history includes three British conquests throughout the 19th and early 20th centuries and the arrival of Japanese troops during WWII, along with multiple threats from China.
Moreover, encompassing the country's core is the valley of the Irrawaddy River, which comprises horseshoe-shaped mountainous jungles and highlands unfriendly to habitation and agriculture. Shortly after Myanmar's independence in 1948, the country fell into a decadeslong civil war with ethnic rebel forces and communist armed groups waging war against Myanmar's central government. This allowed the military to not only rise to power but also deeply intervene in civilian affairs, which ultimately shaped it as a dominant force in national politics.
Since Myanmar's independence, the country has looked inward and sealed itself off from the mountains and the coast, hoping to contain its internal conflicts by resisting outside influence, as well as strengthening the junta's unscrutinized power in the country's political and economic spheres. This, as well as the junta's mismanagement and power abuse, has enhanced the world's suspicion over Myanmar, leaving the country isolated and severely underdeveloped despite the rest of the region's quick growth. Although the military government has initiated a series of tentative openings since the 1990s, neither side had strong intentions of convincing the other to move forward.
The current challenge is the lack of powerful alternatives; neither the opposition, which is backed by the West, nor the peaceful demonstrators led by students and monks have proved a sufficient challenge to the military. Thus, the country's path to reform appears to rest with the military elite and its willingness to loosen its grip on power and welcome outside attention. Ultimately, knowing the country can no longer afford to completely cut itself off from the outside world after decades of isolation and economic sanctions, the military government again is looking outward, hoping that its attempt to open up might legitimize its power and allow the country to capitalize on its strategic location for investment and international status.
Nonetheless, with various internal conflicts left unsettled and various political players willing to seize opportunities to challenge Naypyidaw, the government is fully aware of the risks that could be magnified by opening up. Which brings us to what is happening in the country now: Tatmadaw continues to struggle for control over ethnic forces in the northern part of the country, where cease-fire agreements have not precluded military conflicts. There remains the risk of intervention by an external force such as China, which perceives the opening up as being unfavorable to its interests.
Further, anti-Muslim riots continue to spread across different regions, and the divisive tensions between the Buddhist majority and the Muslim community could continue to jeopardize the country's stability. Moreover, protests and unrest orchestrated by opposition movements against the military government are increasingly in the spotlight.
Myanmar's prosperity and opening up ultimately could risk its unity, so the government — whether under military or democratic rule — must carefully balance its international opening with its domestic insecurity. Myanmar has historically shifted between sitting quietly in isolation while quelling domestic tensions, and exposing itself to the outside world, adding vulnerability to its already volatile domestic situation. These diverse threats cause the military to directly oppose opening up but also provide an opportunity for the military government to preserve its power.
