The most notable announcement in recent days was that the government will attempt to implement bread and cooking fuel ration cards within two months. This move came after an announcement that transportation fuel ration cards will be implemented by the end of July. Ration cards would put caps on how much access Egyptians would have to subsidized goods. They would not necessarily reduce the amount of bread or fuel being consumed by a particular household, but they would certainly better allow the government to control and anticipate its own costs.
If implemented with a means-testing mechanism — a way to tell how much of a given subsidized good a household legitimately needs — then the ration card system could more effectively aim Egypt's large subsidies toward portions of the population that really need them. As with most indiscriminate subsidy programs, most of the subsidies in Egypt are used by people with the means to purchase larger quantities of subsidized fuel, electricity, food and other goods. A ration card system implemented carefully could mitigate this problem and help to alleviate the government's deficit spending.
The implementation of such a system would be difficult and would require an evaluation of the individuals and households applying for ration cards in order to avoid fraud. It will likely take longer than the government's estimate of two months to implement a system like this. It is not at all clear that Egypt has the bureaucratic means to put a program like this in place carefully, and it is highly likely that the program will be implemented unevenly, if at all. Even if perfectly implemented, a rationing system would have political costs — even if rations are sufficient for each household, the appearance of reducing benefits to a population with a high poverty rate will lend additional political momentum to ongoing unrest.
In addition to offering a timeline for the ration card system, the Egyptian government is extending assurances to portfolio investors and loans to the tourism industry. The Foreign Investor Repatriation Mechanism, which opened March 17, guarantees to stock, treasuries and bond investors in Egypt that if they bring in foreign currency, they will be able to pull it out when necessary. The mechanism also guarantees Egyptian Central Bank aid in bank-level transactions, should investors need to liquidate their holdings. This system is designed to reassure investors that Egypt is a safe investment environment and to address the steep decline in Egypt's capital and financial account flows following the global financial crisis and the Arab Spring.
The Egyptian Central Bank is also attempting to stabilize the domestic tourism industry. A major source of foreign revenue, Egypt's services sector has been suffering since the unrest of the Arab Spring began. An ongoing devaluation of the Egyptian pound should help improve Egypt's attractiveness as a vacation destination, but growing security concerns are likely to outweigh those benefits in the short and medium term. To help bridge the gap, the central bank has offered to reschedule and postpone payments on more than 60 percent of outstanding loans to the tourist industry, including hotels. However, the real key to stimulating the tourist industry will be reducing protests and associated violence — a goal that is unlikely to be reached any time soon.
The picture that emerges from Egypt's most recent moves is that though the government has a range of financial tools it can use to attempt to stabilize the economy, serious political barriers stand in the way of addressing more fundamental problems. Fuel subsidies remain the biggest burden on the country's trade deficit and government budget, and any real moves toward controlling subsidized energy consumption will indicate that Egypt is ready to make foundational changes. In order to make such moves, however, the new Muslim Brotherhood-led government would need to be very secure in its political position, something that seems unlikely in the immediate future and, at the very least, will not be achieved until parliamentary elections can be held. Without that fundamental political stability, a financial and economic solution will remain out of Egypt's reach.