Because of the unique relationship between the United Kingdom and the United States, Moscow's relationship with London largely resembles its relationship with Washington. Beyond issues the United Kingdom shares with the United States, extradition and espionage cases as well as human rights issues add to the tension in London and Moscow's relationship. However, Russia and the United Kingdom also have potential areas of cooperation, particularly related to energy. In this context, the bilateral relationship is likely to remain tense in the political arena while being marked by pragmatism in technology and energy issues.
Relations between the United Kingdom and Russia (and their predecessor states) date back to the 16th century. With the consolidation of the two nations as military powers in the 18th and 19th centuries, the United Kingdom and Russia were at times allies and at others adversaries. Since World War II, the United Kingdom has largely aligned its foreign policy with the United States, and although the United Kingdom and Russia both fought against Nazi Germany, bilateral relations deteriorated rapidly after the war.
The United Kingdom improved its relationship with Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union. But when Vladimir Putin came to power in the early 2000s and Russia began to regain political influence in Eurasia, relations between Moscow and Washington became tense again — as did relations between Moscow and London. This makes Russia's ties with the United Kingdom somewhat different from its ties with other European countries such as Germany, France and Italy, which have all managed to reach working relationships with Russia on issues such as energy or defense.
Sources of Tension
In addition to the issues that the United Kingdom shares with the United States, such as the European missile shield, concern over Iran's nuclear program and the withdrawal of NATO troops from Afghanistan, London has its own unique sources of bilateral tension with Moscow.
First, the United Kingdom has traditionally been a refuge for political targets from Russia. There is a bilateral dispute over the death of Alexander Litvinenko, a former Russian spy to whom the United Kingdom granted asylum in 2000, before he was poisoned in London in 2006. The United Kingdom requested the extradition of alleged former intelligence officer Andrei Lugovoi, who was suspected of assassinating Litvinenko, but Russia refused the request on the grounds that Russian law forbids the extradition of Russian citizens. Moscow has extradition requests in place for Boris Berezovsky, an oligarch accused of sedition and financial crimes, and Akhmed Zakayev, a Chechen separatist; London has denied the requests and both Russians have been granted political asylum in the United Kingdom.
Second, the issue of human rights in Russia has been a source of constant tension between the two countries. Many members of the British Parliament have driven motions denouncing abuses in Russia and have advocated a tougher stance against Moscow. In this regard, some lawmakers are pushing for the approval of a law resembling the Magnitsky Act, which was signed by U.S. President Barack Obama on December 14, 2012, and imposed a travel ban and asset freeze on Russian officials linked to the 2009 jailing and death of Russian lawyer Sergei Magnitsky.
Third, there are reciprocal accusations of espionage resembling the continued spy scandals that were frequent during the Cold War.
Moscow has accused London of spying on Russia; in 2006, the United Kingdom was accused of putting a plastic rock filled with communications equipment in a Russian street. At the time London denied the accusation, but in January 2012, a former British government official admitted that it was true.
Finally, the conflict in Syria has contributed to tensions between Russia and the United Kingdom. Russia, along with China, vetoed three British-backed U.N. Security Council draft resolutions that aimed to take stronger action in Syria. Additionally, the United Kingdom and France have sought to lift the EU embargo on weapons for Syria, suggesting that they would also be willing to independently arm the Syrian rebels. On March 13, British Foreign Secretary William Hague and British Defense Secretary Philip Hammond met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu in London for the first summit of the U.K.-Russia Strategic Dialogue. After the meeting, Lavrov stated that any move by the British government to give the Syrian rebels military equipment would breach international law. This will likely remain a source of bilateral tension in the coming months.
Potential Areas of Cooperation
The United Kingdom and Russia do not have strong trade ties. Russia only ranks 15th on the United Kingdom's list of most important exports destinations (accounting for 1.6 percent of British exports) and 14th on the list of countries of origin for British imports (1.8 percent of British imports). Similarly, the United Kingdom is Russia's 14th-largest export partner (2.3 percent of Russian exports) and its ninth-largest origin of imports (2.5 percent of Russian imports).
Russia only accounts for 7 percent of the United Kingdom's crude oil imports and less than 2 percent of its natural gas supply. The United Kingdom's main energy partner is Norway, which provides 73 percent of its total crude oil imports and 67 percent of its natural gas imports.
However, the United Kingdom's energy profile is changing. Its production of oil peaked in 1999, and its production of natural gas peaked in 2000. As North Sea energy resources continue to be depleted, the United Kingdom will be willing to diversify its sources of energy supplies through a combination of domestic production, including shale gas; liquefied natural gas imports from the Middle East, Africa and perhaps the United States; and potentially Russian natural gas, through interconnectors with continental Europe.
Moscow and London can also cooperate in the technology sphere. Russia is currently developing new domestic sources of energy in regions that are technically difficult, such as the Yamal Peninsula, the Arctic Sea and East Siberia. In addition, Russian energy exports will need to shift to technically difficult forms, such as liquefied natural gas. Because of these things, Moscow has been looking for energy partners that will be heavily invested in helping Russia remain an energy powerhouse. The Kremlin has already struck deals with France's Total SA and the United States' ExxonMobil. Now Russia is looking to the United Kingdom.
Russia and the United Kingdom have a poor history of working together in energy. The United Kingdom's BP was one of the many Western firms that were stripped of projects and heavily targeted by Russian Federal Security Service raids during the Russian energy consolidation. Russian energy giant Gazprom also targeted BP's Russian joint venture, TNK-BP, and blocked its projects. BP Group Chief Executive Robert Dudley (who was also formerly the head of the company's Russia section) had a very tense relationship with the Kremlin.
However, it seems that Russia's and BP's energy needs are now in sync. BP has been struggling to find a good market after it took a hit in the United States following an oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, and Russia is looking for major firms to bring it more advanced technology.
In October 2012, BP agreed to sell its 50 percent share in TNK-BP to Russia's Rosneft, which will complete Rosneft's 100 percent takeover of TNK-BP. As part of the deal, BP will acquire an additional 18.5 percent stake in Rosneft, bringing its presence in the Russian company to 19.75 percent. BP also expects to have two seats on Rosneft's nine-person main board, which will in theory put BP's Robert Dudley on a Russian state energy firm's board. Having Dudley more open to cooperation with Russia indicates that he believes Russia is currently shifting its traditionally aggressive energy stance back to a more Western-friendly approach. Additionally, in September 2012, Gazprom and British energy company Centrica signed a contract for the delivery of 2.4 billion cubic meters (roughly 84.8 billion cubic feet) of natural gas over a three-year period via the Belgium-United Kingdom interconnector.
Looking Ahead
Because of the special relationship between the United Kingdom and the United States, the relationship between London and Moscow will likely follow the evolution of relations between the White House and the Kremlin. Therefore, it is likely that the political relationship between the United Kingdom and Russia will remain tense in the coming years.
However, greater cooperation is feasible in energy-related issues, both in the form of the United Kingdom's increased consumption of Russian gas and the increasing cooperation between British and Russian companies. In this regard, the relationship between London and Moscow will likely be marked by pragmatism. However, even if this kind of cooperation occurs, the United Kingdom will not be under the same amount of political pressure as countries in Central and Eastern Europe are since it is less dependent on Russian natural gas.
