Local and international observers have determined that Kenya's national election was for the most part conducted freely and fairly and without violence. EU observers as well as U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry congratulated the Kenyans for conducting peaceful and open elections and called for any disputes to be resolved through legal and non-violent means.
At this point, the 2013 Kenyan election environment is measurably different than that seen in late 2007. In the previous election, incumbent President Mwai Kibaki was intent on winning a second term, and provisional results showed a nearly even race with Odinga. Kibaki was ultimately determined the winner by the slimmest of margins, and the Kenyan government proceeded to inaugurate itself three days after the results, ignoring any call by Odinga's team for a recount. The hasty inauguration as well as the lack of any meaningful dispute resolution contributed to an immediate outburst of violence. A full three months of mediation and negotiations ensued until the violence ended, by which time more than a thousand civilians had died and the country's regional trading relations had ground to a halt. In contrast, during the current elections, initial results already showed a clear trend toward a victory for Kenyatta, and the election committee took its time to audit all votes and even handled a sensitive issue relating to invalid ballots before declaring the results.
Kenya's Supreme Court will hear Odinga's brief and is required by law to make its determination within 14 days. The court has the power to invalidate the results and can order a recount, which would need to be held within 60 days. Odinga's petition, which is focused on the counting of ballots, is not especially strong given that there were no outstanding irregularities voiced during the voting.
Should the results stand, with Kenyatta inaugurated as president and his running mate, William Ruto, as vice president, Kenya will find itself in a challenging situation internationally. Both men face International Criminal Court investigations over their suspected role in instigating violence after the 2007 elections. Kenyatta and Ruto have stated that they will comply with International Criminal Court hearings regardless of their official duties. A main witness to the case against Kenyatta and one of his fellow accused, Francis Muthaura, withdrew his statement after the polls closed in Kenya. Charges against Muthaura have been dropped but the prosecutors insist enough evidence remains for the case against Kenyatta. Kenyatta's legal team has requested a review of all evidence in order to re-evaluate the accusations made against him.
The next International Criminal Court hearing for Kenyatta is scheduled for July, a delay of a few months to permit the Kenyan elections to be fully resolved and the new government inaugurated. Having its potential leaders under International Criminal Court investigation will complicate Kenya's international relations, but to be clear, neither Kenyatta nor Ruto has been convicted of any wrongdoing. Relations between Kenya and Western countries will be open but muted as long as Kenyatta and Ruto are under investigation.
