The concern is that no matter the safeguards or constitutional mechanisms, the pursuit of ethnic group interests will lead to a return to bloodshed. In the first three months of 2008, while politicians and diplomats sought a resolution to the election crisis, more than a thousand civilians were killed and the country effectively ground to a halt. (Eventually, President Mwai Kibaki was inaugurated for a second term and his main rival, Odinga, settled for the newly created post of prime minister.)

Kenya's 2010 Constitution — revised in large measure to avoid a repeat of election-related violence — now requires a first-round winner to secure 50 percent+1 of the vote, plus 25 percent in at least 24 of Kenya's 37 counties. Kenyatta currently holds 2.8 million of the 5.1 million valid votes cast, against Odinga's 2 million votes. Furthermore, Kenyatta has fulfilled the county requirement so far in 23 counties and will very likely secure enough votes in other counties where counting is not yet complete. Results from 170 of Kenya's 290 constituencies still need to be tabulated. 

One of the main issues at this point is that there is a large number — nearly 10 percent — of invalid votes (mostly votes put into the wrong boxes or incorrectly used). The question is whether these will be counted toward the total vote. If the invalid votes are counted, it could reduce Kenyatta's vote total below the 50 percent+1 threshold, costing him a first-round victory. As a result, both sides are lashing out at the electoral commission — Kenyatta wants to ensure the invalid votes are not counted and Odinga wants to ensure that they are in hopes of forcing a runoff.

Kenya's independent electoral commission will find itself under immense pressure to deliver its final results, with parties and observers impatiently awaiting the verdict on who will direct Kenya for the next five years. Violence at this point would spoil the final results and would likely put Odinga under the same threat of International Criminal Court indictment that has dogged other politicians, including Kenyatta and his running mate, William Ruto, as a result of the previous election violence. Given his comfortable lead, Kenyatta has no interest in triggering violence. But should his vote percentage drop below the required 50 percent+1, perhaps due to spoiled votes, he could be forced to enter a second-round vote.

The threat of election-related violence in Kenya remains, but the conditions for violence have yet to emerge.