Whether there is any veracity to the rumors this week that Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is already dead, the reality is that he will not return. The precise date of the announcement matters less than what his successor intends to do at the helm of the government. To some extent, it may not even matter who succeeds him.

Chavez has fundamentally changed the nature of Venezuelan politics. His election was a response to the growing ineffectiveness of the two-party system that dominated Venezuela during the 20th century. His prioritization of Venezuela's poor population gave him an unrivaled power base but also empowered Venezuelan communities and redistributed oil wealth. In many ways, Chavez has become the father figure of Venezuela. The majority of Venezuelans will mourn his passing.

Vice President Nicolas Maduro will almost certainly succeed Chavez. The opposition in Venezuela is disorganized and fractious, with little chance of winning an election at this point. Though there are differences within the chavista camp, Maduro has credibility as Chavez’s named successor that will make it difficult for anyone to challenge him.

Maduro's rise to a leadership position marks a new era in Venezuela. Maduro cannot afford to abandon the redistribution and community-oriented policies that Chavez pioneered. But there are very serious challenges that he must tackle in order to succeed. Crime is rampant and affects all Venezuelans. So too, does inflation.

The answers to these problems are not easy. In addition to endemic crime, as an Andean nation Venezuela is a path for drugs flowing from Colombia to consuming nations. The pressure of U.S.-led drug interdiction efforts and the growing influence of Mexican drug cartels in South American drug production have exacerbated associated violence in Venezuela over the past several years. With only anemic improvements to Venezuela's law enforcement capacity, the country is suffering from an outbreak of crime that includes criminals specifically targeting police. Challenging this day-to-day threat will entail significant allocation of resources to police and even military organizations in Venezuela.

Likewise, inflation will be difficult to tackle. As a major petroleum producer with ever-growing fiscal commitments, Venezuela is chronically affected by its own version of the Dutch disease and the high inflation that follows. Inefficiencies in the system of imports, shortages of foreign currency and a miniscule domestic production base drive scarcity of basic foodstuffs, which in turn drives inflation on the black market. 

The next president will have to tackle these problems and more, but Chavez's successor will also suffer from the handicap of not being Chavez. He spent his terms as president blaming his ministers for any problems in the country. Those ministers are now set up to rule the country, but they all lack the charisma and leadership skills of their patron.

Without the charm of Chavez, Maduro will have to be more effective in addressing the key underlying political and economic questions facing the country. As a result, he is likely to be a more pragmatic leader, focused on impact more than image. Maduro will need to prove himself, and quickly, once in office. He will have to balance the need for more foreign investment with the need to generate public confidence that he is a strong and capable leader.

Rumors aside, that is a process that cannot begin until the government decides to make Chavez's health status clear, a decision that will depend more on the political calculations in the chavista inner circle than it will on outside pressures.