Indeed, Jerusalem appears to be a curious target for Hamas. The city has a large Palestinian/Arab/Muslim population, and all Palestinian factions consider it the potential capital of a Palestinian state. More important, the city hosts Islam's third holiest site, the Masjid al-Aqsa. Considering the projectiles Hamas has used in the current conflict are artillery rockets, which do not have guidance systems, the odds are that Muslims would die in an attack. Otherwise, one Fajr-5 rocket could strike the Masjid al-Aqsa, damaging the site and potentially killing scores of worshippers.

Such a scenario would hurt Hamas' reputation. The airstrikes in Gaza have given Hamas widespread sympathy in the Arab/Muslim world. But if Muslims were killed as a result of retaliatory strikes, that support could turn into criticism.

Risks and Rewards

Hamas understands the risks. Yet it proceeded to target Jerusalem and could strike again, depending on the availability of the long-range rockets and opportunity to strike. The question is, why?

The strike sent a clear message: Jerusalem is not beyond the reach of Hamas. Reclaiming the city is a cherished goal among not only Palestinians but also Muslims throughout the world. A popular narrative among Muslims says that Jerusalem was lost to the Crusaders for two centuries only to fall back under Islamic control. According to the narrative, it is only a matter of time until the city is returned to Arab Muslims once again.

By showing that it can target Jerusalem, Hamas plays to this belief within the Palestinian community and the wider Islamic world. The Islamist movement sees itself as a modern day Salah al-Din, who liberated Jerusalem from the Crusaders in the 12th century, struggling to liberate the city and the holy lands from non-Muslim control. Of course, Hamas is unlikely to achieve what Salah al-Din did anytime soon, but the group is trying to shape perceptions first among the Palestinians and then among the international Islamic community. At this point, these perceptions matter more to Hamas than any real gains against the state of Israel.

With the strike at Jerusalem, Hamas means to boost morale among the Palestinians and Muslims in the region as well as enhance its profile. Like Hezbollah, Hamas would like to demonstrate that with its meager resources it can engage the Israeli military in a way no Arab military can. That kind of credibility outweighs any risk of hitting al-Aqsa. 

Hamas probably counted on the unlikelihood that it would actually hit al-Aqsa or a Muslim neighborhood. Hamas leaders may have also taken into consideration the Islamic view that the life and property of a Muslim is much more sacred than even the Kaaba in Mecca. Were the mosque damaged, Hamas could characterize it as collateral damage in pursuit of a higher cause — and that it could always be rebuilt.