Last weekend was filled with speculation over whether Iran had agreed to suspend uranium enrichment. No significant concessions appear to have been made — or at least confirmed — thus far, but Iran's conciliatory tone is notable nonetheless. Tehran is signaling that it is ready for a serious negotiation with the United States over such thorny issues as the Iranian nuclear program and, in light of similarly noteworthy statements made Monday about ongoing Syrian opposition talks, the future of the Levant.

What is a Geopolitical Diary? George Friedman explains.

In a press conference Saturday night, Iranian lawmaker Mohammad Hassan Asafari spoke about Tehran's willingness to suspend its efforts to enrich uranium to 20 percent. Saudi-owned Al Arabiya apparently misquoted Asafari, reporting that Iran had suspended uranium enrichment as a goodwill gesture ahead of the yet-to-be-scheduled resumption of the P-5+1 (the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council plus Germany) nuclear talks with Iran. On Sunday, however, Asafari clarified on the English-language website of Iran's state-owned Press TV that the country had in fact not halted 20 percent enrichment, but he maintained that Tehran — in exchange for an easing of economic sanctions — would accept enriched uranium from abroad to supply its five-megawatt Tehran Research Reactor for civilian use.

The Iranian denial of the Saudi report was not as significant as the re-emphasized interest in reaching a deal over uranium enrichment. The enrichment issue is a good starting point in any nuclear negotiation. Israel and the United States have different "red lines" when it comes to contemplating a strike against Iran. From the U.S. perspective, Iran exhibiting the intent and capability to weaponize a nuclear device would be enough to consider military action. Israeli leaders, by comparison, have said that Iran gaining the ability to produce enough fissile material for a single nuclear device would alone justify an attack.

Visit our Iran page for related analysis, videos, situation reports and maps.

To lessen the need for military posturing on all sides and create a more suitable atmosphere for talks, Iran has diverted at least 37.6 percent of its enriched uranium stockpiles and converted it into fuel rods for the Tehran Research Reactor, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency. Returning the fuel rods to 20 percent enrichment is technically possible, but such a process would create a large amount of waste. The move adds several months — at least — to Israel's timetable, and Iran has indicated that it is interested in further defusing tensions by suspending enrichment or diverting more of its stockpiles for civilian use.

The nuclear issue isn't the only example of Iran trying to at least appear more conciliatory; Tehran is also seeking to compromise with the United States on Syria. Iran, Russia, the United States and Turkey — as well as second-tier regional stakeholders such as Jordan — have more in common on the Syria issue than one might think. Iran and Russia, for example, are each seeking to maintain influence in the Levant. Meanwhile, the United States wants to avoid getting further entangled in the region, and Turkey is far more concerned about limiting Kurdish separatism in the short term than its long-term ambition of fostering a Sunni regime in Damascus.

As a result, a consensus is emerging within this motley group to remove Syrian President Bashar al Assad and his clan from power, while maintaining as much of the regime as possible. This would prevent a power vacuum in Syria, which could provoke already high sectarian tensions in the region. Indeed, there are early indications that Iran and Russia may back a provisional government being negotiated currently in Qatar that could place former Syrian parliament member Riad Seif, a more pliable, yet legitimate Syrian opposition figure, at the helm of a post-al Assad Syria. In a sign that Tehran may be on board with this proposed arrangement, an Iranian official said Monday that the talks in Doha would yield positive results.

A larger obstacle in the Iranian nuclear negotiation has been Tehran's concern about political uncertainty in the United States. It is still unclear who will occupy the White House in 2013 and whether that person will follow through with these preliminary discussions and engage in a more serious negotiation. With election day in the United States now just hours away, Iran is likely holding its breath for the result as much as any American.

Editor's note: A previous version of this analysis misstated the purity required for weapons-grade uranium.

RANE
SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Expert analysis when it matters most.

Get access to RANE's decision-grade geopolitical intelligence.