A month after the Trinamool Congress withdrew its support for the ruling government, Singh unveiled the new Cabinet, which draws heavily from within the Congress party's ranks. Both of India's major national political parties, Congress and the rival Bharatiya Janata Party, have aging leadership structures and are struggling against the perception that they are corrupt and ineffective. But with the United Kingdom formally ending its boycott of the wildly popular, nationalist governor of Gujarat state, Bharatiya Janata's Narendra Modi, Congress now faces the possibility of Western governments shifting their attitudes toward Modi, a key critic of the Indian government and potential prime minister candidate in 2014.
A key constraint on Modi's ascendance to the national stage has been Western governments' criticism of his handling of Muslim-Hindu violence in Gujarat during the early years of his governorship in the early 2000s. Because he is under a U.S. and British travel ban, Modi's ability to lead India internationally has been questioned. But if the apparent Western outreach to Modi continues, Bharatiya Janata stands a much better chance of winning the elections on a platform based on reversing many of the United Progressive Alliance's economic reforms. A victory for Bharatiya Janata could also alienate domestic minority stakeholders and potentially increase sectarian and ethnic tensions on India's borders.
Modi's popularity presents a problem for Congress, whose prime minister, Singh, just turned 80 and is not expected to run for the position in 2014. Congress is struggling to find a suitable replacement, but there are currently no members within the leadership structure who are believed to be able to compete with the admittedly controversial popularity of Modi.
Congress' Path to Re-Election
Although Congress and the United Progressive Alliance are already beginning to look toward the 2014 elections, the now-minority government must also work to retain its traditionally high level of support among independent parties in parliament to stave off a motion of no confidence. The almost absolute presence of Congress party members (all but two ministers in the Cabinet are from Congress) may indicate that smaller parties and coalition members are unwilling to publicly back the alliance's contested economic reforms or are still negotiating in an attempt to garner political concessions from the Congress party.
It is also likely that after a contentious relationship with the Trinamool Congress, and after being placed in a position where it is overly dependent on minority coalition members, Congress has decided to monopolize the political decision-making process. It may be that the party is taking responsibility for any pushback from the opposition, thereby providing political cover for its smaller coalition partners, or that it is attempting to ensure that it alone receives the praise for any future success ahead of the 2013-2014 election campaign.
Congress is also dealing with the alarming political trend of minority interests forming localized parties rather than positioning themselves within the organizational framework of a larger national party. This development is especially worrisome for Congress, which has relied on the support of religious, ethnic and economic minority support more so than its Hindu-nationalist rivals in the Bharatiya Janata Party. As India's oldest political party, Congress has also faced growing criticism for being ineffective, outdated and corrupt. The Nov. 4 pro-reform rally was an attempt to begin to reverse these trends, though it relied heavily on the relatively untested and contentious leadership of Rahul Gandhi, the son of former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi and grandson of former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi.
In the short term, little will change in the day-to-day operations of the United Progressive Alliance government. Bharatiya Janata has already dismissed the changes as another exercise in promoting corrupt officials. But the reshuffling gives Congress something it desperately needs in the short term: stability. This, coupled with Congress' apparent decision not to seek coalition members' input, might give the alliance more room to maneuver regarding current and planned economic and bureaucratic reforms.
The Cabinet reshuffling also provides a peek at the United Progressive Alliance's future strategy. For one thing, Salman Khurshid and E. Ahmed, both Muslims, were made full and junior ministers of foreign affairs, respectively. Additionally, the Cabinet features opponents of the West Bengal-based Trinamool Congress, which is under building pressure from leftist and opposition candidates ahead of its own local elections without Congress' support. This means that, despite having to rule as a minority coalition and being under the constant threat of a no-confidence motion, Congress is still relying on the support of minority interests (those who are put off by Bharatiya Janata's message of Hindu nationalism) and is demonstrating that it can still take on domestic political opponents.
September and October's contentious economic reforms also lie at the heart of this Cabinet reshuffling and Congress' political strategy ahead of parliament's monthlong winter session, which begins Nov. 22. Caught between aging infrastructure, cooling foreign investment interest and slowing economic growth, Congress and its allies are desperate to recapture the momentum and success of 1991's economic reforms. If Congress is ready to accept the political ramifications of ruling outside the coalition, and if it is able to survive the political opposition, then attempts at economic reform may gain some traction, or at least stave off reversal attempts for the near future. With its eye on 2014 elections, short-term success from economic reform might be Congress' only meaningful alternative to Bharatiya Janata's charismatic candidate.
