In the past few months, Tamaulipas state experienced a sharp increase in homicides — from 87 reported in August to 128 in September, according to Mexico's Executive Secretariat of the National System of Public Security. Military operations often lead to violence in Tamaulipas state, but the state is also experiencing a turf war involving Los Zetas, the Gulf cartel and a Los Zetas splinter group led by Ivan "El Taliban" Velazquez Caballero until his recent arrest. These dynamics are likely behind the state's reported increase in violence.
Outside of Tamaulipas state, other areas have experienced upticks in violence due to the escalation of the conflict between the Gulf cartel and Los Zetas, including Zacatecas, San Luis Potosi, Nuevo Leon and Coahuila states. Velazquez's split from Los Zetas earlier in 2012 coincided with the escalation in violence. Velazquez aligned with the Gulf cartel and the Knights Templar and declared war against Los Zetas' top leader, Miguel "Z-40" Trevino Morales. The addition of Velazquez's resources likely bolstered the Gulf cartel's ability to assault Los Zetas in the northeast, particularly in Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon.
These additional resources may have recently taken on a new moniker. On Oct. 21, Mexican media outlets reported that a new criminal group known as Los Legionarios is operating in Tamaulipas, according to a message circulating in social media. The message was purportedly written by the group, which claims to be at war with Trevino in Zacatecas and San Luis Potosi states and in the cities of Monterrey and Nuevo Laredo. Regardless of whether the message was indeed written by the group (which is certainly plausible), it would not reflect a new dynamic in the cartel wars in the northeast since the network loyal to Velazquez already has been operating in those regions for months. However, if the message were legitimate, it would provide further proof that Velazquez's network has aligned and is fighting with the Gulf cartel against Los Zetas.
Despite Velazquez's arrest, violence will likely not subside substantially in the areas where his organization has been operating. The recent series of high-profile arrests of Gulf leaders, including the cartel's top leader, Jorge Eduardo "El Coss" Costilla Sanchez, probably will lead to additional violence. Los Zetas has an opportunity to press harder in Gulf-controlled areas such as Reynosa, and a power struggle within the Gulf cartel and Velazquez's network resulting from the arrests is possible. The recent announcement that the Knights Templar are operating in Nuevo Leon and Tamaulipas — outside of their usual areas of operation — could also contribute to higher levels of violence in the region should the Knights Templar send gunmen to help counter Los Zetas in the northeast while still fighting the organization in the central states.
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