After World War II, West Germany experienced a period of rapid economic growth that pushed the country to look outside its borders to meet its workforce demands. Berlin made a series of bilateral labor recruitment agreements in the 1950s and 1960s with regional countries such as Italy, Spain and Greece (although Europe's economic downturn in the mid-1970s led to the end of these programs). Berlin also launched a process to repatriate ethnic Germans from other parts of Europe. And in 1961, the government signed a labor agreement with Turkey. The program formally ended in 1973, but a large number of family reunifications, marriages and asylum seekers kept the flow of Turkish immigrants strong. As a result, Germany is home to roughly two-thirds of all Turkish nationals in the European Union.
Immigration patterns in Germany changed when several Central and Eastern Europe countries joined the European Union in the mid-2000s, making it easier to legally work in the Western European country. For example, Poland has become the largest annual source of immigrants to Germany — a trend that began with Poland's EU accession in 2004. Indeed, the number of Poles moving to Germany accelerated from 105,000 in 2003 to 164,000 in 2006. This flow has declined somewhat due to the European crisis — Poles are finding better opportunities at home — but Polish immigration to Germany remains well above pre-EU accession levels.
A similar wave of immigrants emanated from Romania when that country joined the European Union in 2007. The United Kingdom and Germany quickly became favorite destinations for Romanian workers, and Romanians now make up the second-largest group of immigrants arriving annually in Germany — primarily low-skilled young men and women working in construction, service industries and eldercare. Germany also receives high numbers of workers from Bulgaria and Hungary.
Germany's Needs
At roughly 1.4 children per woman, Germany has one of the lowest birth rates in Europe, and the country is also dealing with the problem of a maturing and shrinking population. Germany still boasts an economy unmatched in Europe and, along with France, is the Continent's political leader. But the country's negative demographic trends could threaten its status as Europe's industrial leader — especially since the populations of France and the United Kingdom will likely continue to grow for some time. Most European countries will eventually face problems associated with population decline, but Germany will feel their effects much sooner. This dynamic could alter the balance of power in Europe in the coming decades.To counter its demographic issues and sustain its economic success, Germany must find ways to both improve its per-capita productivity and accelerate immigration. For the next four decades, Germany will likely need to integrate 500,000 foreign workers annually to maintain a stable workforce — a goal that will be almost impossible to achieve. While the country is still attracting high numbers of immigrants, it also suffers from high rates of emigration. According to U.N. statistics, Germany has a net migration rate of 0.2 percent, well below the United Kingdom's 3.3 percent and France's 1.6 percent. Approximately eight out of every 10 people leaving Germany each year are foreigners — primarily Poles, Romanians and Turks. Moreover, unlike the United Kingdom and France, Germany has no former colonial ties with which to facilitate additional recruitment of immigrants.
The Eurozone Crisis and Emigration
Several factors are contributing to Germany's emigration trend. Take Turkey: The European crisis is lessening the attraction to Germany for Turkish workers; at the same time, Turkey's economic growth is generating greater opportunities at home. In the past decade alone, Turkish immigration to Germany has dropped by half; some 58,000 Turks arrived in Germany in 2002 compared to roughly 29,000 in 2010. Polish workers are leaving Germany for similar reasons.
Historically, unemployment in Germany has been twice as high among foreigners as among native Germans. Despite the eurozone crisis, this ratio that has largely remained stabile because, so far, the global economic downtown has only moderately impacted employment in the country. However, for immigrants who were unemployed before the crisis began, jobs have statistically become even more elusive. Immigrants are also over-represented in low-skill sectors — just one-third of foreign workers in Germany have the vocational training or other qualifications typically needed to land stable or high-paying jobs.Moreover, anecdotal evidence suggests that a sizable number of immigrants are leaving Germany because of difficulties learning the language and adapting to German life. The country's rigid labor system and the difficulty of earning employment promotions have also been cited as factors. By comparison, other European countries with robust economies — especially the United Kingdom — are perceived by foreign workers as more culturally and linguistically friendly.
The immigration situation is further complicated by ongoing political debates about the role of Muslims in Germany. Currently, around 4 million Muslims live in the country. Recent surveys have suggested that religious identification is growing among Muslim populations, especially among youths. However, surveys also show that most immigrants want to fully integrate into German society. The country needs to embrace both tendencies, especially considering that, by 2050, a third of the total German population is expected be Muslim.
Thus, one of Germany's primary challenges is to better assimilate foreigners. Between 2005 and 2007, Germany approved several immigration reforms and programs such as mandatory courses designed to smooth the integration process for foreigners. These programs have apparently had only a limited success. Since most immigrants have low educational levels, Germany will likely need to design training systems that can incorporate them — and especially their children - into the labor market.
Given its robust economy and geographic location, Germany will continue to attract high numbers of immigrants, particularly from Central Europe and Turkey. Family reunifications and the presence of large foreign-born populations will also help sustain labor flows. However, competition for immigrants with other large European economies such as the United Kingdom and France will increase in the coming years — especially for high-skilled workers. Germany's efforts ability to adapt its legal framework to attract immigrants and to enhance its capacity to assimilate foreign-born populations will be increasingly important.


