Stratfor previously noted some interesting U.S. military deployments to the Mediterranean, Africa and the Middle East. One deployment discussed was the dispatch of a dozen or so special operations aircraft to the Mediterranean region. These aircraft included four versions of the C-130 Hercules, namely the MC-130H, HC-130N, HC-130P and AC-130U.

It now appears that these aircraft have been staging out of Souda Air Base on the Akrotiri Peninsula of Crete, conducting day and night missions in Libyan airspace. The various types of modified Hercules aircraft operating in the area are likely transporting and supporting special operations troops on the ground who could be running reconnaissance and intelligence gathering operations in Libya. In fact, an unnamed U.S. military official reportedly told CNN that U.S. special operations forces are in Libya meeting with informants and using signals and imagery intelligence from unmanned aerial vehicles and satellites to collect information on militant networks in the country.

In light of the Sept. 11 U.S. Consulate attack in Benghazi, the United States has been working to enhance its retaliatory options in Libya. So far, Washington has been focusing its efforts on the collection of intelligence, but the deployment of a number of assets in the region means that the United States is positioned to conduct a wide range of kinetic operations in Libya if necessary. The inclusion of AC-130U gunships is particularly noteworthy. The AC-130U is not a dedicated intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance asset, and thus its presence over Libya indicates that special operations forces or other U.S. assets are indeed on the ground and that the aircraft are there to provide fire support if necessary. If Washington chose, the gunships, alongside armed UAVs and fixed-wing assets that can deploy from U.S. Air Force bases in Europe, could also be used to strike at compounds or high-value targets.

But there are considerable challenges for U.S. military action in Libya. In order to mitigate the risk of collateral damage, the United States has to be very careful to ensure that accurate intelligence is collected before any strikes are carried out. Civilian casualties would only exacerbate an already delicate and unstable political situation in Libya, where the people have not yet fully accepted the government. Stratfor sources have said U.S. intelligence on Libya has been very limited — a fact made clear by the Sept. 11 attack. The deployment of a sizable contingent of special operations forces in Libya suggests that the United States is very likely coordinating with the Libyan government and also has deployed a number of CIA personnel in the country.

The current stage of the U.S. deployment in the region involves collecting intelligence, identifying main personalities and establishing patterns of life of suspected targets. More generally, the forces are establishing a portfolio of options — from airstrikes to snatch-and-grab missions — for the U.S. administration to explore as it considers its response to the Benghazi attack.