Frelimo has governed Mozambique since 1975, when the country gained independence from Portugal, but there have been only three presidents during Frelimo's tenure. Samora Machel led Mozambique until he died in an airplane crash in 1986. Machel was succeeded by Joaquim Chissano, who led Frelimo until 2002 and held the presidency until early 2005, when he selected Guebeza to succeed him. Frelimo congresses are held roughly every five years; the party can decide to hold them earlier if it is deemed necessary. 

There are two notable opposition parties in Mozambique: the Mozambique National Resistance party, or Renamo, which is the legacy party from the Cold War-era civil war; and the Democratic Movement of Mozambique, which broke away from Renamo in 2009 and is led by Daviz Simango, the mayor of the central coastal city of Beira. However, they are not involved in central governance, and they present no real challenge to Frelimo's agenda.

Instead, Frelimo's challenges involve managing internal party rivalries, socio-economic issues, disparities between the relatively rich south and the rest of the country and most important, a coal and natural gas boom. Though investment in some industrial projects has driven recent economic growth, Mozambique remains underdeveloped and poor. The country has a population of roughly 22 million people, and while its labor force is estimated at 10 million, only 500,000 are formally employed. Frelimo tries to support the population with donor budget programs, government-created employment programs and food and fuel subsidy programs.

Coal and Natural Gas on the Rise

It is within this context that Guebuza is seeking a third term as party leader. Mozambique's nascent extractive resource industries could attract much needed foreign investment, and the president likely is preparing his exit in a way that safeguards his and his party's positions.

Indeed, Frelimo already is managing the development of the coal and natural gas industries. But the location of these industries is problematic for Maputo. Coal is found primarily in central Mozambique, and natural gas is found primarily off the coast in northern Mozambique. Seated in the extreme south, Maputo traditionally has neglected these regions, where Frelimo's political rivals draw much of their support. The coal and natural gas industries could enrich these regions and thus challenge Frelimo, if the ruling party does not manage their rise accordingly. One way in which Frelimo asserts its authority is by inserting political elite into public and private sector developments.

It is thus no coincidence that Frelimo chose Pemba as the venue for its leadership congress; the northern port city is set to become the hub for natural gas exploration and development. Exploration and development will be led by Italian group ENI and U.S. energy company Anadarko. Both companies reportedly are negotiating the joint development of their offshore fields and the construction of a $15 billion, two-train liquefied natural gas liquefaction facility. Taking into account market developments in other global regions, ENI and Anadarko may decide to invest in Mozambique in 2013. In any case, developing the offshore fields and the liquefaction plant may take several years to complete, perhaps coming online in 2018.

Guebuza's third term as Frelimo president will ensure that he commands his party's decision as it develops these multibillion-dollar economic sectors. Guebuza also will be at least a driving force in determining his successor, and Frelimo could still remove the constitutional bans on presidential term limits. Such a move would invite criticism at home and, more important, from the international donor community that underwrites almost half of the Mozambican government budget. Instead, Frelimo will focus on managing threats inside and outside the party as coal and natural gas bring unheralded wealth to Mozambique.