Pakistani military chief Gen. Ashfaq Kayani will visit Russia next week in an effort to strengthen Islamabad's military ties with Moscow, The Express Tribune reported Tuesday. Kayani's trip will mark the first official visit to the Kremlin by a Pakistani military head, with the exception of his predecessor, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, who visited Moscow in 2003 as president. Similarly, Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit Pakistan from Oct. 2-4; this will be the first visit by a Russian head of state in Pakistani history.
This type of high-level diplomacy between Russia and Pakistan is unprecedented. Indeed, during the Cold War, Islamabad allied with the United States against the Soviet Union and, along with Washington and Riyadh, supported the Islamist insurgency that would force the Soviets to withdraw from Afghanistan in 1989. However, as an unnamed senior military official noted in The Express Tribune report, Pakistan's interests currently align with those of Russia more than with those of the United States.
Nearly a quarter century after the Soviet withdrawal, U.S.-led NATO forces in Afghanistan are preparing to follow suit. The impending withdrawal has Moscow worried about threats posed by the Taliban and other Afghan jihadists if left unchecked by NATO troops. Islamabad is similarly concerned about the impact that a Taliban resurgence would have on Pakistani security.
U.S. actions since 9/11 have upset the fragile balance of power in the region. In the 1990s, the Russians (along with the Iranians and the Indians) backed the Northern Alliance's fight against the Taliban, who in turn received support from Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. But the spillover of the Taliban insurgency into Pakistan in recent years — and the resulting deaths of tens of thousands of Pakistani citizens and security forces — has altered Islamabad's views of the Afghan militants.
As a result, the Pakistanis have been attempting to enhance ties with the Afghan government, as well as with anti-Taliban ethnic minority groups. Pakistan has also sought to repair relations with India, due primarily to Islamabad's desire to avoid a proxy war with its eastern rival in post-NATO Afghanistan.
It is thus notable that the shifts in Pakistani foreign policy, especially concerning Afghanistan, are taking place at a time when U.S.-Pakistani ties have soured due to disagreements about how to stabilize Afghanistan and increasing U.S. unilateral action on Pakistani soil. Relations between the two longtime allies reached a breaking point last November after U.S. airstrikes in Pakistan's tribal belt killed 24 Pakistani soldiers. Washington and Islamabad agreed to normalize relations after a monthslong stand-off, but the damage was clearly done. Indeed, The Express Tribune noted that Kayani was originally scheduled to visit Moscow in early August, but the trip was delayed by a series of meetings with American officials designed to repair damaged U.S.-Pakistani relations.
The breach with the Americans pushed Islamabad to try to diversify its foreign policy portfolio and reduce its dependence on the United States. The push stemmed in part from the democratization of policy-making under the current government, which will likely become the first in Pakistani history to complete its term. Moreover, political, economic and security problems in Pakistan have reached all-time highs, forcing the country's civilian rulers and military leaders to agree that Islamabad needs a new strategic outlook.
The Pakistanis do not believe that an alliance with Russia can replace a partnership with the United States. Rather, Islamabad hopes to increase its foreign policy options by reaching out to Moscow. In turn, the Kremlin has two broad goals for relations with Pakistan: it wants to prevent a deteriorated security environment in post-NATO Afghanistan from destabilizing Central Asia or exacerbating the spread of Islamist militancy within Russia's sphere of influence in places like Tatarstan. Moscow also hopes to gain leverage in a country that has traditionally been in the American sphere of influence.
To what extent the Russians or the Pakistanis can achieve their objectives remains to be seen. What is certain is that both countries appear to be going to great lengths to overhaul their bilateral relations.
