The Amuay refinery fire is not an isolated incident. Venezuela's refining sector has been slowly declining for years as cost-cutting measures enacted by Petroleos de Venezuela's management have had adverse effects on operations. A similar, albeit smaller, event occurred Nov. 5, 2011, when a storage tank at the same refinery caught fire. The same month, blackouts left the Cardon refinery without power. In January 2012, a valve failure caused a five-day outage at the catalytic cracker of El Palito refinery in Carabobo state. These and an overall high rate of incidents are outside the norm for refinery operations and have periodically caused shortages of refined fuels in Venezuela.

The chronic challenges Venezuela's once state-of-the-art refineries are experiencing are in part a result of changes in the frequency of maintenance procedures at Petroleos de Venezuela refineries. The company's employees heavily supported the 2002 coup attempt on Chavez. When the attempt failed, many of the company's technically experienced employees were fired. Since then, efficiency has plummeted at Petroleos de Venezuela. The number of employees has skyrocketed at the same time that output has fallen. Among other shifts, this dynamic produced a change in how the refineries are maintained. Whereas prior to 2002 maintenance procedures were carried out every three years at a maximum, that period has expanded to four to five years.

For Chavez, the Amuay fire is only the latest political blow to occur despite efforts to secure support for the election. In the first place, prison riots have become a frequent occurrence. In the past several months there have been major incidents at prisons in Caracas, Miranda and Merida, underlining the problems the government is having managing extreme overcrowding in prisons, where heavily armed gangs compete for control with each other and with prison officials.

The government is also facing a crisis in relations with workers of the Venezuelan steel company Sidor, whose collective contract with the state-owned company expired more than two years ago, freezing wages amid high inflation. While labor disputes are not uncommon, this dispute took on a particularly public air when union workers verbally attacked Chavez on national television Aug. 20. The program was cut off in the middle, officially for technical reasons but more likely as a political decision to downplay an unplanned, controversial challenge to Chavez's leadership.

Public opinion polls in Venezuela are unreliable, but an Aug. 24 poll by Consultores 21 showed Miranda state Gov. Henrique Capriles Radonski pulling slightly ahead of Chavez nationwide after having previously reported a technical tie. Consultores 21 gained some credibility by correctly predicting aspects of the Sept. 2010 legislative elections. However, other polls show Chavez maintaining a wide lead, making it difficult to say whether the shift toward Capriles in Consultores 21's poll is an accurate representation of public opinion.

Indeed, despite his controversial nature and persistent concerns about his illness, Chavez remains a popular leader. Capriles will be deeply constrained in making any big changes to the system in Venezuela by sheer inertia as well as a need to maintain political support — which he would do through policies similar to the redistributive practices that have made Chavez so enduringly popular.

The main distinguishing factor between the two candidates remains the likelihood that Capriles will be able to more credibly attract foreign investment to help boost oil production and repair failing infrastructure. But Capriles' potential entry into the national political scene will also present a challenge to factions of the Venezuelan elite, including members of the military whose current positions rely on the patronage of Chavez. Capriles will attempt to strike an accommodation with these individuals, but there will be challenges to assuring them that Capriles will not extradite them to the United States, which has labeled some as drug kingpins. Though consistent rumors that these elements could go so far as to perpetrate a coup have so far proved unfounded, should Chavez lose the election or suffer a severe relapse of his illness, there remains the possibility that the political and security situation in Venezuela could deteriorate.