Helmand and Kandahar provinces are the Taliban's traditional power seats in Afghanistan, and the region has seen intense conflict throughout Operation Enduring Freedom. The 2010 surge saw some 30,000 additional troops head to Afghanistan, with large numbers of U.S. Marines deployed to Helmand and Kandahar.
Offensive operations and active patrolling by the Marines pushed the Taliban back in a number of districts and restricted the insurgents' freedom of movement. But despite considerable successes, Helmand and Kandahar provinces still rank as the most violent in the entire country. The six Helmand districts of Kajaki, Musa Qala, Nad Ali, Nahr-e Saraj, Now Zad and Sangin continue to account for at least a quarter of all insurgent violence in Afghanistan.
The surge is now drawing to a close, with the remaining 10,000 U.S. surge troops slated to leave the country by the beginning of October. The United States will then have 68,000 troops in Afghanistan, down from a surge high of 100,000. Helmand in particular will feel the withdrawal. By the beginning of October, the U.S. Marine presence there will drop from a high of 21,000 to between 7,000 and 10,000 personnel. The Marines currently scheduled to leave are in the early stages of shutting down forward deployments and patrols as they withdraw to large main bases to prepare for redeployment.
The Marines will continue in a smaller support role while the Afghan armed forces take the lead in maintaining security. The remaining Marine forces have been chosen based on the Afghan armed forces' weaknesses. Most will consist of logistical support elements, such as aviation support, along with various training detachments and some command and control elements.
This will be one of the first large-scale International Security Assistance Force handovers and force reductions in Afghanistan. ISAF is planning to hand over security responsibility for regions in ongoing stages. Throughout 2013, Afghan armed forces units will then take the tactical lead in operations throughout the country with ISAF units in support. The final stage will involve a steady drawdown to a much more limited ISAF presence that will remain after 2014.
Given the ongoing insurgency in Helmand and the considerable doubts about the Afghan armed forces' ability to prosecute the war without significant assistance, the Marine drawdown carries substantial risks. For instance, the withdrawal of the surge forces reportedly means the Marines have only a single company deployed in each of the districts of Now Zad and Musa Qala. Recent insider attacks where Afghan armed forces targeted ISAF personnel also raise questions about the Afghan armed forces' competence. The Taliban will most likely take advantage of the thin ISAF presence to attempt to regain some of the control they lost during the surge in what they deem a key province.
This means attacks such as the two on Aug. 27 will likely become much more common as the Taliban strive to reassert control over regions where security vacuums have appeared. A significant Taliban comeback in Helmand would be a decisive operational — and perhaps more important, symbolic — blow, highlighting that the surge may have been successful in temporarily controlling and holding territory but failed to build out a successful security force for the handover of control. This would also bode ill for the overall countrywide handovers slated for 2013 and ISAF troop reductions in 2014. On the other hand, the Afghan armed forces' holding their ground in Helmand despite the significantly reduced Marine presence would represent one of the strongest signs yet that the planned ISAF transition is working out. The success (or lack thereof) of the surge and the ISAF's efforts over the last few years will increasingly become obvious in key battlegrounds such as Helmand province.
