Saudi King Abdullah on Thursday appointed Prince Bandar bin Sultan to lead the General Intelligence Presidency, the country's premier spy agency. Bandar is already the head of the kingdom's National Security Council; he now holds the top two national security positions in the most powerful Arab state. He replaces his half uncle, Prince Muqrin bin Abdulaziz (the youngest living son of the kingdom's founder), who was Saudi intelligence czar for the past seven years and has now been made adviser and special envoy to the king.
The outgoing intelligence chief has far less experience in national security and foreign policy matters than does his nephew; Prince Muqrin previously served as governor in two different provinces. Prince Bandar's entire career has been devoted to national security and foreign policy. Bandar was the longest-serving ambassador to the United States (1983-2005), and for the past seven years he has served as national security chief, which placed him in a position to play a key role in dealing with Iran. Furthermore, both as national security chief and as ambassador to the United States, Bandar has served as the kingdom's behind-the-scenes point of contact with Israel, a state with which Saudi Arabia has no formal relations. Bandar has thus accrued significant influence in foreign policy matters over the last decade — an exceptionally difficult period for the kingdom due to the events of 9/11 and the spread of Iranian influence.
Bandar's appointment as intelligence chief is one in a series of other critical national security-related appointments. Just last month, Deputy Interior Minister Prince Ahmed bin Abdulaziz was promoted to full interior minister, replacing his older brother Prince Naif, who died recently. Naif was also crown prince. That position was given to his younger brother Prince Salman, who last November also became defense minister after the death of his brother Prince Sultan.
This change in leadership occurs in an era of tremendous domestic and international uncertainty for the world's largest exporter of crude oil.
On the home front, the advanced age of the kingdom's second generation of leaders is driving a historic transition. This means the kingdom will be forced to increase the number of third-generation princes who assume key posts. This transition has been further complicated by the Arab unrest that broke out last year and that has challenged the kingdom's leadership to maintain monarchical order in an age of democratic chaos.
Even so, the phenomenon of popular uprisings in the Arab world has not been all bad for the Saudis. Thus far, Riyadh has weathered the changes in the region and will likely continue to do so. More significant is the fact that the Saudis have harnessed these changes to undermine a rising Iran, which is the biggest threat to the kingdom's national security. Supporting the opposition in Syria has allowed Saudi Arabia to slow down and perhaps push back the rise of Iran's power in the region.
Just 24 hours prior to Bandar's appointment as Saudi Arabia's new spymaster, Syrian President Bashar al Assad's regime — the most important element in Iran's arc of influence in the region — was dealt a severe and sudden blow. A bomb went off in the room where Damascus' top security bosses were meeting to discuss ways to deal with the growing rebellion. The blast killed Syrian Defense Minister Dawoud Rajha, Deputy Defense Minister Assef Shawkat (al Assad's brother-in-law) and Hasan Turkmani, al Assad's security adviser and assistant vice president. A number of other senior security officials were wounded in the blast. The incident may well have set in motion the implosion of the Syrian state and the diminishment of Iran's regional power.
Still, the Saudis know that Tehran will not give up its sway in Syria without a fight. The Saudi monarchy can take comfort in the fact that the clerical regime will not be able to prevent the pending collapse of the al Assad regime, but it does fear Iran's ability to promote anarchy in the region. A post-al Assad Syria could descend into conflict, which could spread and wreak havoc on the eastern periphery of Saudi Arabia.
From the Saudi point of view, the fallout from the collapse of Syria's regime must be managed so that it doesn't undermine the kingdom's national security and regional interests. For Riyadh, Tehran will present a greater threat when acting in desperation to limit the decline in its influence than it did when its fortunes were rising. The breakdown of the Syrian regime will also further motivate the push against autocracy in the region, meaning the Saudi monarchy will want to ensure continued insulation of the kingdom's borders.
What this means is that the kingdom requires experienced leaders capable of maintaining stability through particularly turbulent times. Thursday's appointment of Bandar reflects an acknowledgment of that fact.
