Gaza's prime minister and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh will travel to Cairo within the next several weeks to meet with Mohammed Morsi, Egypt's newly elected Islamist president. The announcement, issued Thursday by a senior Palestinian official, comes within days of a meeting between Hamas central leader Khaled Meshaal and King Abdullah II of Jordan. These visits are taking place not long after Hamas was forced to distance itself from Syria, its longtime patron.
Hamas' leadership had been headquartered in Damascus since Jordan expelled the group in 1999. Hamas was part of a radical regional alliance that included Iran, Syria and Lebanese Shiite Islamist movement Hezbollah. This alignment of players successfully enhanced its influence in the region until the outbreak of the 2011 Arab uprising — especially once that uprising spread to Syria. The manner in which the Syrian regime cracked down on the largely Sunni uprising created a major problem for Hamas. As a Sunni Arab entity, Hamas could not remain aligned with an Alawite regime reportedly killing thousands of people while suppressing a largely Sunni rebellion.
At the same time, the standing of Hamas' fellow Islamists throughout the region has dramatically improved. Islamists made significant gains in elections in North Africa. From Hamas' point of view, the Muslim Brotherhood's (MB's) electoral victories in Egypt have been the most significant. Egypt is the main Arab player in the region; because of the diplomatic relations it has held with Israel since 1978, Cairo has acted as the chief mediator in Israeli-Palestinian negotiations.
Geography gives Egypt tremendous leverage over Gaza. During former President Hosni Mubarak's era, Cairo viewed Hamas as a threat to its national security because of the Palestinian Islamist movement's hostility toward Israel. The Egyptian regime thus sought to contain Hamas and the Palestinian movement, who had no choice but to contend with the limited options. Mubarak's ouster ushered in an era of multi-party politics in which Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood emerged as a center of power — second only to the country's powerful military-led establishment.
For Hamas (the successor to the Palestinian chapter of the MB), the rising influence of the Egyptian MB opens up potential opportunities in Gaza. For starters, Hamas would like to normalize traffic on the Egypt-Gaza border — though Egypt's new president is unlikely to accommodate Hamas on this issue just yet.
The MB may have won the presidency, but it is a long way from being truly empowered in Egypt. The military will likely dominate the country's political system, especially given its move to dissolve parliament within months of elections that gave the MB the largest number of seats. Even more important is the large degree of influence the military will have over the drafting of Egypt's new constitution.
Hamas understands the limitations its MB allies in Egypt face, which is why it is unlikely to complicate the MB's journey toward eventual empowerment. That said, the Palestinian Islamist group that rules Gaza will continue to secure any privileges it can. The MB's influence in shaping Egypt's foreign policy on the Israeli-Palestinian issue will directly influence whatever privileges Hamas can gain.
It will be critical to watch how Egypt's first Islamist president connects with Israel. Meanwhile, Hamas will focus its attention on enhancing its influence in Jordan and by extension the West Bank, which is currently under the control of Hamas' main rival, the secular Fatah movement, whose fortunes have long been dwindling. Perhaps the biggest shift in Hamas' orientation will be eventually seen in Syria, where the Islamist organization will increasingly throw its support behind the Sunni-led rebellion against its former Alawite patrons in Damascus.
