Turkish officials consulted with fellow NATO members Tuesday to discuss the country's response to Friday's downing of a Turkish reconnaissance plane over the Mediterranean by Syrian forces, as well as the Sunday targeting of a Turkish rescue plane by a Syrian air defense radar system. The immediate rhetoric from Ankara gave the momentary appearance that the Turks would retaliate and change the dynamic of the Syrian conflict. Instead, NATO issued a statement of solidarity with Turkey, and for now Ankara has decided against taking any immediate action.
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan had called the downing a deliberate and hostile act that would not go unanswered. Today he tempered that response but shifted the rules of engagement by saying that any Syrian military element that approaches the Turkish border from Syria and represents a security risk will be regarded as a military threat and treated as a military target. The Turks are now prepared to fire on new threats without warning, but they are not prepared to respond to Friday's attack.
Turkey has held to a difficult strategy of avoiding foreign engagements and maintaining good relations with all its neighbors. Syria has proved to be a particularly challenging case. The Turks favor the fall of Syrian President Bashar al Assad's regime, but they are not prepared to unilaterally intervene in Syria. They recognize the difficulty of the operation, the potential fallout and the fact that such an intervention would redefine Turkey's role in the region. Ankara is simply not prepared to intervene at this point.
The Turks did not go to NATO expecting support for military action. They went instead to frame the issue as one Syria shares with Turkey, Europe and the United States, rather than Turkey alone. Turkey avoided intervening and still appeared statesmanlike.
The problem is that Turkey's move also made Syria appear strong. First, the Syrians demonstrated the effectiveness of their air defense system in Friday's downing of the reconnaissance plane and Sunday's targeting of a Turkish rescue plane. It is not clear whether senior commanders controlled the attack or whether local commanders initiated it, but in either case, the actions worked. Now the perception is that Syria has a capable air defense network, which means that air attacks on Syria could entail a heavy cost.
Second, it demonstrated Syria's capability and will. The major question in Syria — especially since the defection last week of a Syrian air force pilot and his aircraft — has been whether the Syrian military would remain cohesive and loyal to the al Assad regime. Syria has changed the internal equation by shooting down a Turkish plane without drawing Turkish retaliation. Syria has demonstrated three things: Its will to resist has not weakened, it is capable of effective action, and Damascus can provoke outside powers without triggering an intervention.
That demonstration of outside powers' reluctance to intervene is the greatest benefit to the al Assad regime, whether Friday's incident was planned or accidental. This means the opposition's hopes for help from the outside are likely dimming. Last week we wondered about the morale of the Syrian military. This week we need to ask what lies ahead for the opposition now that it faces both foreign indifference and a still coherent Syrian military.
