Russia will double the number of its contract servicemen at its military base in Gyumri, Armenia, by the end of 2012, a Russian Southern Military District spokesman told reporters June 19. The overall number of permanent Russian personnel at the base will remain unchanged. According to the Kremlin, the move is part of its efforts to professionalize the Russian military by relying less on conscripted soldiers. However, the timing of the announcement is striking in light of Moscow's tense relationships with Azerbaijan and Georgia.
In early June, Russian President Vladimir Putin met with senior officers to discuss military priorities including increased emphasis on contract servicemen, known in Russia as "kontraktniki." Putin said Russia's armed forces would consist of 700,000 volunteer contract troops by 2017 and, by 2020, just 145,000 conscripts. Whether Russia can meet such ambitious goals remains to be seen, although contract soldiers already serve in major Russian military districts. Some 5,000 troops are currently stationed in Gyumri, where Russia has extended its lease until 2044. The spokesman said some additional contract servicemen will deploy to Armenia soon.
Armenia's heavy military and economic dependence on Moscow has made the country a Russian client state. Indeed, Moscow is the security guarantor for Armenia, which is locked in an intractable conflict with Azerbaijan over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region. Violence on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border has increased recently, with unusually lengthy skirmishes leading to casualties on both sides.
The Russian troop movements are also noteworthy when considering the Kremlin's geopolitical aims in the Caucuses. Russia has an agreement with Yerevan to patrol Armenian borders — an arrangement that concerns neighboring countries. In Georgia, friction with Moscow has escalated since U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s trip to the country in early June, during which Clinton expressed solidarity with the country and pledged additional military assistance. The Kremlin is also threatening to deport 9,000 Georgian immigrants. Furthermore, Russia traditionally has pressured Georgia militarily from the north in the Georgian breakaway territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Increasing Russian involvement in Armenia makes Georgia's southern border with the country vulnerable as well.
Russian tensions with Azerbaijan are also notable. Like Armenia, Azerbaijan is also dependent on Russian arms. But according to June 19 reports, Baku is considering buying weapons from Israel, with which it has been increasing cooperation. Russia is negotiating to extend its lease on a radar station in Azerbaijan, but pricing remains a major obstacle. Moscow is using its new radar station near Armavir, Russia, as leverage.
Both Baku and Tbilisi will take note of Russia’s troop movements in Armenia. Even if the move is primarily about military reform, Moscow has reasons to project power in the region.
