Saudi Crown Prince Naif bin Abdulaziz died June 16, Saudi state media announced. Naif, who also had been serving as interior minister and second deputy prime minister, was around 80 years old and had been ill for some time. News reports immediately following his death suggest that his brother, Defense Minister Prince Salman bin Abdulaziz, will become the new crown prince.
With Naif's death, Salman is the last major member of the Sudairi Seven, a powerful group of full brothers and sons of Abdulaziz bin al-Saud, the founder of the modern Saudi kingdom. The Saudi royal family had been expecting Naif's death and is prepared to manage the transition to a new crown prince. Nevertheless, the passing of another member of the generation that has led the modern Saudi kingdom since it was founded in the 1930s brings the historically resilient al-Saud family closer to a period of greater political uncertainty when the next, less experienced generation comes to power.
The foremost question is who will be the next crown prince. In part, this will be determined by the limited choices available: There are very few able-bodied and politically active sons of Abdulaziz left. However, there are complications: The formal process wherein the Allegiance Council elects the king and crown prince is largely untested, especially as the line of succession becomes increasingly opaque. Moreover, the post of second deputy prime minister, historically filled by the crown prince-in-waiting, has been empty since the death of the previous crown prince, Sultan bin Abdulaziz, in October 2011.
There also is the question of who will become the next interior minister, a position Naif had held since 1975. There are two apparent choices: Ahmed bin Abdulaziz, Naif and Salman's younger brother, who has been deputy interior minister since the mid-1970s; and Naif's son Muhammad, assistant interior minister for security affairs and the kingdom's counterterrorism chief. However, previous similar ministry successions open the possibility of neither of these men taking over. For example, after Sultan's death, Salman took over as defense minister instead of Sultan's son, Assistant Defense Minister Khalid bin Sultan, who remained at his post. Furthermore, Sultan's younger brother, Deputy Defense Minister Abdel-Rahman — another of the Sudairi Seven — was relieved of his post. The question of the next interior minister thus remains open, with other options including Mecca Gov. Prince Khalid bin Faisal and intelligence chief Prince Muqrin being likely.
As the second generation of Saudi leadership continues to shrink — indeed, Saudi King Abdullah himself is 90 years old and has been hospitalized repeatedly in recent years — the royals do not have long before they will be forced to increase the number of third-generation princes who assume key posts. These princes have much less experience at governance and foreign policy than their predecessors, a crucial distinction both in terms of Saudi Arabia's status as the world's largest crude oil exporter and amid regional tumult due to the Arab unrest and the rise of its archrival, Iran.
In the short term, a smooth transition to a new crown prince will be key for the country, and King Abdullah will likely push through Salman's appointment to ensure this. Nevertheless, these growing internal and external pressures threaten the kingdom's long-term stability.
