After a year and a half of political tumult in Egypt, it appears that Egypt's military and the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) may be close to striking a grand bargain.

The maneuvering began on Wednesday when the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) re-imposed martial law to allow a military presence in the streets ahead of the June 16-17 runoff presidential election. Then on Thursday, the Supreme Constitutional Court ruled that Ahmed Shafiq, the last prime minister to serve former President Hosni Mubarak and the military's choice for the presidency, was eligible to run in the election, overruling the MB-dominated parliament's legislative attempt to disqualify candidates with ties to the Mubarak era.

By rejecting the legislation, the high court — which is heavily influenced by the military — cleared the way for a presidential race between the Islamists and the military. The court easily could have made this ruling earlier, especially with only two days remaining before the election, but this was only part of a broader message that the military intended to send on Thursday.

Before Shafiq could begin a campaign speech in response to the court's ruling, the high court made another announcement. It ruled that the law under which one-third of the members of parliament were elected was unconstitutional, and that those lawmakers were disqualified. The court said that the parliament could be dissolved as a result. Under that scenario, the military would assume control of the parliament's legislative powers as well as the Constituent Assembly, which will draft the country's constitution.

The SCAF coyly issued no statements after the verdicts were handed down — the ruling council purportedly met to "discuss the court's rulings." But there was no need for a SCAF press conference to clarify a ruling by a court that is heavily suspected of working in league with the country's generals in the first place. The military had already delivered a strong message to the MB: The Brotherhood can be content with its parliamentary presence and even a likely MB presidency, but it will have to step aside and accept that the military will have the final say on the country's constitution (which will determine the balance of power among the state's institutions). Otherwise the MB risks losing everything, including its parliamentary gains.

Since the first protest hit Tahrir Square in January 2011, Stratfor has looked past the widespread claims in the media of liberal democracy coming to the Arab world and instead has maintained that the Egyptian military would remain the key pillar of the state throughout the political transition. As a result, we also expected that the MB, in spite of its popularity on the street, would have to make the greater concessions in a grand bargain with the military on forming a new government.

So, when we see the military issue an apparent ultimatum, our immediate response is to watch how the MB reacts. That reaction came late Thursday, when the MB's presidential candidate, Mohammed Morsi, said in a television interview that he accepted the court rulings on Shafiq and on the disqualification of one-third of the parliament and, most important, that the ruling must be respected. Nothing is certain in this complex political transition, but Morsi's reaction does create the impression that a bargain is in the making.