A video from a Yemeni TV station shows roughly 50 to 70 soldiers lying on the ground at the scene of the explosion. How many of those were dead and how many were just wounded could not be determined. The majority of those injured belonged to the Central Security Organization, a paramilitary force commanded by Yahya Saleh, a nephew of former Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh. The organization has its own detention facilities and is part of the Yemeni Ministry of Interior. According to BBC Arabic, al Qaeda sent it a statement saying that the attack represented retaliation for crimes by the Central Security Organization.
Suicide bombings are not the main tactic that al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), the regional al Qaeda franchise, has used in Yemen lately. Instead, it has relied on gunmen on motorcycles, improvised explosive devices, vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices, ambushes with automatic weapons or pursuing a target to their home and then shooting them. The group carried out its last suicide bombing April 6. In that incident, the suicide bomber's device exploded before he reached his target, believed to be an intelligence office in Mansoura, and killed two people. The May 21 attack is also the first pedestrian suicide bombing since the attempted attack on British Ambassador to Yemen Tim Torlot in April 2010.
A belt or vest typically carries around 4.5-11 kilograms (10-25 pounds) of explosives. The explosives and the accompanying shrapnel or ball bearings typically kill and maim people going back two to three rows in a heavy crowd. (The soldiers in this attack were tightly packed in parade formation.) The force of the explosion and hence the lethality of the device decrease rapidly as the bodies closest to the bomber absorb the blast and shrapnel. An innovative new device or suicide bombing tactic developed by AQAP or erroneous reporting could explain the unusually high body count.
A retaliation attack like this one is unsurprising given the recent Yemeni-led, U.S.-backed offensive against AQAP in Yemen's southern provinces, which has killed dozens of AQAP militants in the past week. This attack indicates that although the southern offensive is costing AQAP, it still can plan and carry out attacks elsewhere in Yemen, including the capital. Thus, even if AQAP no longer controls significant territory, it likely can continue to mount attacks against the Yemeni security and political apparatus. This attack proves that the battle against AQAP is far from over.
Editor's note: An earlier version of this analysis misstated the position of former Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh.
