The parliamentary elections will be significant for Saakashvili and the UNM as the party tries to maintain its majority in the legislature (UNM currently holds 119 of 150 parliamentary seats). Saakashvili cannot participate in Georgia's next presidential election because he has already served two terms, but he likely intends to remain involved in Georgian politics. One option for Saakashvili is to become prime minister, though this would be a controversial move because it would mirror Russian President Vladimir Putin's recent course of action. However, amendments made to Georgia's constitution in 2010 will increase the parliament's power after the 2013 presidential election. If UNM holds its majority in parliament after the October elections, Saakashvili could find it easier to stay in power as prime minister, should he choose to do so.
Saakashvili's UNM will be competing against a new, unified opposition movement led by Ivanishvili, a wealthy businessman who entered Georgian politics in 2011. Ivanishvili has faced several obstacles in the political arena; although he holds French citizenship, he has not obtained Georgian citizenship and is thus legally barred from forming a political party. A lawyer close to Ivanishvili formed the Georgian Dream-Democratic Georgia party, which Ivanishvili is expected to take over if and when the issue of his citizenship is resolved. Ivanishvili's growing popularity within the past year prompted several opposition parties — including Davit Usupashvili's Republican Party, Irakli Alasania's Our Georgia-Free Democrats, Kakha Shartava's National Forum and Gogi Topadze's Industry Will Save Georgia — to join the Georgian Dream-Democratic Georgia party in a coalition to challenge the UNM in October's elections.
Domestically, these parties share the goal of securing a majority in parliament and eventually removing Saakashvili from the government. In wider strategic issues, they advocate Georgia's current path toward NATO and EU memberships, with the exception of the National Forum and Industry Will Save Georgia parties, which endorse an end to the nation's efforts to join NATO. The Georgian Dream-Democratic Georgia party, launched April 21, is still new, so other than the opposition's goal to unseat the UNM as the majority party in parliament and Saakashvili as president, the policy differences between the opposition and the ruling party are not yet clear.
Divisions and infighting have historically played a key role in keeping the Georgian opposition weak and unable to present a credible challenge to the government, but the Georgian Dream movement is the most united opposition front the country has seen in years. The May 27 opposition rally in Tbilisi and the October parliamentary elections will gauge the strength of the newly formed bloc. However, the bloc is encountering several obstacles in challenging the government. Ivanishvili's supporters have been threatened and fired from jobs, Georgian Dream has had difficulty renting offices and many of Georgia's television stations are controlled by UNM.
Regardless of the results of the upcoming parliamentary elections, two key geopolitical factors will not change. First, Georgia will continue its Western-oriented path. The Georgian public supports efforts to integrate with the West, particularly with NATO and the European Union, and deviating from that path would carry a devastating political cost for the party holding the parliamentary majority. Second, Georgia will continue to experience tension in its relationship with Russia, and issues such as the status of Abkhazia and South Ossetia will remain unresolved. Therefore, the parliamentary elections are not likely to have an immediate effect on Georgia's foreign policies as a whole.
