Russia has been experiencing a revitalization for years, particularly since Russia's defeat of Georgia in the August 2008 war. The war was a reminder, not only to Georgia but also to the rest of the former Soviet states, that Russia should not be dismissed as a military and security force in the region. Since then, Russia has adjusted the way it demonstrates power in the region, relying on a subtle yet substantial strategy of increasing integration with countries in the region.
This integration has spanned the areas of economics and security. The Customs Union, which Russia launched with Belarus and Kazakhstan in 2010 and which aims to align member countries' customs duties and regulatory policies (mostly with Russia's), is an instrument of economic integration. Security integration can be seen in the increased emphasis on the Collective Security Treaty Organization, which includes Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and the Customs Union members. Recent efforts have focused on creating a more effective Collective Rapid Reaction Force and more frequent military exercises between member states.
The distinction between economic and security cooperation can be unclear — something that Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin hinted at when he announced the idea of the Eurasian Union, which is intended to streamline the integration of countries in the former Soviet Union even further beginning in 2015. This has raised the question of whether Russia wants to rework these states into a Soviet-like union while it pursues influence and a greater presence in its former Soviet territory.
The Field of Integration Prospects
With Belarus and Kazakhstan firmly within Russia's integration structures, the next logical country for Russia to pursue is Ukraine, given its strategic position and importance to Moscow. Indeed, Putin and other Russian officials have issued formal calls for Ukraine to join Russia's Customs Union and other Moscow-led blocs. However, Ukraine has been much less willing to participate in these projects than Belarus and Kazakhstan. Instead, Ukraine has pursued a more balanced foreign policy, trying to maneuver between Russia and the West to preserve its sovereignty and extract concessions from both sides in negotiations. Kiev has instead called for its participation in the Customs Union in a 3+1 format. The durability of this strategy is questionable, but in the near term Ukraine is unlikely to participate in the union in this format.
Armenia is another logical target, given that Moscow already has significant influence in the country because of its military presence there and control of many of Armenia's strategic economic assets. However, because Armenia is separated from Russia by Georgia, a pro-Western country not interested in Russia's integration plans (preferring instead to align with the European Union and NATO), it would not make sense for Armenia to join a customs union meant to break down economic barriers and facilitate cross-border flows of goods and services.
The Importance of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan
The next logical countries for Russia to consider including in its integration strategy and institutions would be Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Both countries rely heavily on Russia for economic support, and both host Russian military bases and troops. Kyrgyzstan has even formally applied to become a member of Russia's Customs Union.
However, these countries are not without problems for Moscow. Both have experienced internal instability in recent years, and both have sizable constituencies that do not want further integration with Russia in terms of customs duties, particularly since this would displace the large amount of cheap goods both countries get from China. There is also a question of time. Tajikistan would, at least theoretically, need to wait for Kyrgyzstan to join the Customs Union before it could be considered for membership (since it, like Armenia, currently does not share a border with a member), and bureaucratic hurdles could delay Kyrgyzstan's official membership for one or two years.
Regardless, Russia still has significant influence in these countries and has emphasized these states in the context of its integration strategy. Therefore, this is the key area to watch while Moscow continues with its plans to grow as a regional power and to institutionalize its influence ahead of a potential confrontation with the United States over issues such as ballistic missile defense.
