The Kazakh Prosecutor General's Office issued a statement Dec. 19 claiming that the situation in the western oil-rich Kazakh region of Mangistau was returning to normal after a robust police and military intervention quelled three days of sporadic violence and protests. The unrest broke out in several different cities and involved oil workers' demonstrations. Kazakhstan has seen a significant increase in the number of violent incidents in 2011, with most instances linked to either organized crime or Islamist militancy. The violence perpetrated by both the protesters and government forces Dec. 16-18 is likely to fuel further unrest, particularly if the oil workers' protests intersect with disaffected citizens' concerns and militant activity in the country. The unrest began in the town of Zhanaozen on Dec. 16, Kazakhstan's Independence Day, when police tried to disperse hundreds of striking oil workers from the Uzenmunaigaz unit of KazMunaiGas Exploration Production (KMG EP) from the town's main square, where they had been protesting daily — and peacefully — since June. KMG EP (which, along with subsidiary Uzenmunaigaz, is experiencing severe financial and organizational problems) employs approximately 14,000 workers at 41 fields in western Kazakhstan. The protesting workers were demanding better pay, rights equal to those of foreign workers and the right for trade unions to organize in the region. After police tried to break up the demonstration, the workers — many in their work uniforms — and civilian supporters began demolishing a stage set up for Independence Day celebrations and attacked government officials and police. The police responded with tear gas and, at one point, gunfire. At least 46 buildings reportedly were burned during the fighting, including the municipal government building, hotels and the Uzenmunaigaz office. Demonstrators also burned down the home of the director of Uzenmunaigaz. Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev declared a state of emergency in Zhanaozen on Dec. 17. At least 14 people died in the violence, at least 100 others were injured and approximately 70 were detained or arrested. In previous protests and industrial actions, police used force to disperse protests, which have been going on since May in the region, but this is the first time the government used deadly force and the first time the protesters engaged in violence. (click here to enlarge image) Unrest also was reported in the town of Shetpe, approximately 145 kilometers (90 miles) northwest of Zhanaozen, when approximately 300 people blocked the Mangyshlak-Aktobe passenger train at the Shetpe railway station. This delayed seven passenger trains and nine freight trains for several hours. Police reportedly deployed at about 6 p.m. to disperse the protesters, and clashes reportedly broke out about 8 p.m. One person was killed and 11 were injured in the violence. About 50 people set a train on fire and reportedly went to the town center, where they began breaking windows and damaging cars. Some of the demonstrators reportedly went to the town center and began attacking stores and cars. Police blocked off the town and cleared the protesters from the streets. On Dec. 18, approximately 500 people — many of them oil workers — peacefully demonstrated in Concord Square in central Aktau, the capital of the Mangistau region (located approximately 200 kilometers from Zhanaozen). Also on Dec. 18, in the town of Zhetibai (located approximately halfway between Aktau and Zhanaozen), some workers went on strike in solidarity with fellow oil workers. Reportedly, around 2,000 demonstrators rallied in Aktau again Dec. 19. These incidents are not physically connected, except that they took place in the same region — an area largely isolated from Kazakhstan's population centers and a region known for its extreme poverty. One common factor linking these protests is that the demonstrators were oil workers who, after months of peaceful demonstrations, resorted to violence. Also, each demonstration had at least some local civilian support. In the clashes in Zhanaozen and Shepte, the protesters used Molotov cocktails and sticks and stones, respectively, showing rudimentary capabilities to strike at government forces. The fact that the protesters in Zhanaozen knew where the Uzenmunaigaz director lives is significant, however. The Kazakh government's reaction was quick and continuous. The government ordered a partial media blackout and a complete physical blockade of Zhanaozen, as well as a temporary phone and Internet cutoff to the city. Phone lines to Shetpe also reportedly were cut over the weekend. These actions were taken to prevent communication and keep the unrest contained, in case the demonstrations might inspire protests — or violence — in other areas of the country among people with social grievances similar to those of the oil workers. Outside of the region, a very small opposition protest supporting the oil workers occurred in Almaty in September, and on Dec. 19 approximately 12 demonstrators attempting to deliver a letter supporting the oil workers to Nazarbayev's palace were detained in Astana. These incidents were minor, however, and nowhere near the scale of the weekend protests or violence in the west. Nevertheless, they indicate that the oil workers do have at least a few supporters in Kazakhstan's political and financial capitals. The Kazakh government has accused Mukhtar Ablyazov and Rakhat Aliyev, two exiled opponents of the president, of secretly funding the protesters. The oil workers have gained support from numerous forces in the country. On Dec. 17, the Union of Kazakhstan's Patriotic Youth publicly demanded a declaration of mourning for those killed in Zhanaozen. Former Kazakh senator and opposition leader Zauresh Battalova told reporters Dec. 17 that the Kazakh authorities were responsible for the violence. Another faction voicing support for the protesters is the shadowy Kazakh militant group Jund al Khilafah (JaK). The group, which claimed responsibility for the Oct. 31 suicide and improvised explosive device attack in Atyrau, the Nov. 12 shooting rampage and suicide attack in Taraz and the Dec. 3 gunbattle with law enforcement in Boraldai, issued a video Dec. 18 on the website Shamikh al-Islam in support of the oil workers. In the video, a speaker encouraged the oil workers to continue demonstrating against the Nazarbayev government, "whose goal is to destroy the values of the Kazakhs." The group also called for the abolition of Kazakhstan's law regarding religion and "the expulsion of Nazarbayev and his sycophants." While there is no indication of deeper connections between JaK and the oil workers, it is likely that JaK is capitalizing on this situation — their commentary draws Islamist attention to the protests, which could inspire some cells or radicalized individuals to take violent action on behalf of the oil workers. Kazakhstan has seen a significant increase in violence in 2011. The country's first reported suicide bombing occurred in May, signaling a possible increase in militancy. A string of attacks and shootouts involving organized crime groups or Islamist militants has given Kazakhstan serious internal security issues and caused dozens of deaths across the country. In the next week or two, the question will be whether social unrest in Kazakhstan is met with lethal or disproportionate government force and whether labor disputes will be diffused or resolved (though a resolution to the oil workers' labor dispute seems unlikely). In the long term, Nazarbayev's government could face serious problems if the economy worsens in other regions, though a government collapse or loss of control over any of the regions is unlikely, given the size and loyalty of Kazakhstan's security services. Regardless, amid rising Islamist militancy in the country, the JaK's public support for oil workers' rights could pose an even larger threat in the future.