Afghanistan at the Crossroads: Insights on the Conflict

Parachinar-Thal Road Reopens

Regional officials in Pakistan's Kurram agency announced the reopening Oct. 29 of Parachinar-Thal road, which had been effectively closed since at least 2007 due to fighting between Sunni and Shiite tribesmen in the area and attacks by militants. The Haqqani network in 2008 brokered the deal for a cease-fire that would allow the road to reopen, though persistent violence kept the road closed until now. As part of the belatedly enacted deal, Sunni and Shiite refugees — some of whom had been forced out of the area nearly 30 years ago by the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan — have been returning to their homes, according to media reports. A number of questions remain about the agreement that allowed for the reopening of the road. For instance, though the warring Sunni and Shiite tribesmen appear to have reached an accord for now, it is unclear whether the Haqqani network is still a party to the deal it originally helped to negotiate, as the road's closure had a bearing on the ability of the Haqqanis to transit the area. The Haqqanis advocated a deal that would halt the sectarian fighting, and, presumably in exchange for their role conciliating between the two sides, the group's militants would be allowed greater freedom of movement, enabling them to use the Parachinar-Thal road to insert fighters into Afghanistan. In addition to the Sunnis, Shia and the Haqqani militants, a fourth group — the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) — is also active in the area. However, any peace deal agreed upon without the involvement and consent of the militant groups in the region is unlikely to last long. As the main transit route through Kurram agency, the road is strategically significant. Forming a wedge of Pakistani territory jutting into Afghanistan, Kurram agency in the past has been used to project influence from the east into Afghanistan and particularly Kabul, which is only 100 kilometers (60 miles) from the Pakistani border. During the 1980s, the CIA and Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence directorate used the area as a training base and as an area to deploy mujahideen fighters into Afghanistan. (click here to enlarge image) Kurram agency is key for anyone hoping to project power into eastern Afghanistan, making its value to the Haqqani network obvious. In fact, leaders of the Shiite Turi tribe based in Upper Kurram said in December 2010 that they had rejected a request by the Haqqanis to move a base out of Miran Shah to Kurram in response to U.S. unmanned aerial vehicle strikes. Both Parachinar and Thal are areas where the Haqqani network and TTP are known to operate safe-houses and use for logistics and training purposes, and opening up the road would facilitate travel for the militants between the two cities. Thus far, reports indicate that the Sunni and Shiite tribesmen themselves appear to have initiated the cease-fire agreement and allowed traffic on the road to resume. If the Haqqanis had nothing to do with implementing the deal, it is unlikely that they will be able to expect any sort of special treatment allowing them greater movement along the road from the Sunni or Shiite militiamen, though they could still take advantage of the road's opening by attempting to pass through surreptitiously. It is also possible that the Haqqanis will try to close down the road — at a November 2010 meeting in Islamabad with tribal leaders and TTP representatives, the Haqqani network said it would only allow the road to be opened if militant convoys and movement into Afghanistan were unrestricted. The road has been opened for only one week and could very well be closed again soon if fighting flares up. (It was opened for a short period in 2010 only to be closed due to an uptick in violence.) However, if arrangements have been made between the Haqqani network, TTP and the tribes in the region to allow the road to stay open, then we will most likely see increased militant traffic on this route. With the United States cracking down on the Haqqani network in and around the Miran Shah area, the road through Kurram could provide an alternative for militants seeking to cross between Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Istanbul Meeting

Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, India and the United States, along with 21 other countries, sent representatives to a two-day meeting in Istanbul on Nov. 1 to discuss security and stability in Afghanistan. This conference will lay the groundwork for the Dec. 5 meeting in Bonn, Germany, on the future of Afghanistan. The last Bonn Conference, held in 2002, established the Hamid Karzai government as the first post-Taliban regime in Afghanistan. Taliban representatives also have been invited to the conference, but it is unlikely they will attend — and even if they did, one of the central challenges in the negotiations is determining who can credibly speak on their behalf. The various stakeholders are expected to use the next Bonn conference to float proposals and hold talks on possible reorganizations of the Afghan government, the results of which may not be known immediately. Any political settlement to the conflict in the country will require a major restructuring to make room for the Afghan Taliban within the government. Though it is unlikely that this conference will see a major breakthrough, it could provide indications on the direction the United States intends to take negotiations as the withdrawal proceeds and the onset of winter leads to a seasonal slowdown in fighting.