U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents on Oct. 26 announced that Rafael "El Junior" Cardenas Vela was arrested Oct. 20 after a traffic stop near Port Isabel, Texas, while on his way to a residence he reportedly owns on nearby South Padre Island. Cardenas Vela, believed to be the leader of one faction vying for power within the Gulf cartel, was accompanied by three bodyguards and had in his possession at the time of the stop an authentic Mexican passport and U.S. entry visa in a fraudulent identity. According to a STRATFOR source, the traffic stop was initiated after an anonymous tip provided U.S. authorities with Cardenas Vela's location. Because of his role as head of the "Los Rojos" faction of the Gulf cartel, the tip may have come from Cardenas Vela's rivals in the Gulf cartel known as the "Los Metros" faction. This would be even more evidence of the internal fight that has consumed the cartel in recent months. Cardenas Vela is the nephew of former Gulf cartel leader Osiel Cardenas Guillen, who was arrested in 2003 and succeeded by his brother, Antonio "Tony Tormenta" Cardenas Guillen, and Eduardo "El Coss" Costilla Sanchez — the current leader of the Los Metros faction — as co-leaders of the Gulf cartel. After Antonio was killed in November 2010, Costilla Sanchez became sole leader of the cartel, though Cardenas Vela felt that as a blood relative of longtime Gulf leader Cardenas Guillen, he should be the cartel's leader. This leadership dispute was the seed of the current infighting. The struggle appears to have intensified in recent weeks, with the Los Rojos faction loyal to Cardenas Vela believed to be responsible for the killing of Costilla Sanchez's second-in-command Sept. 3. As long as the factions of the Gulf cartel are caught up fighting among themselves, the group is in a weakened state and other cartels can be expected to take advantage of the situation. The Los Metros faction thus has a strong incentive to take out the Los Rojos leaders and is in a good position to have or acquire information, such as Cardenas Vela's whereabouts and the locations of his likely hideouts. Cartels usually try to avoid conducting hits on U.S. soil, which may explain why Costilla Sanchez's faction may have tipped off U.S. authorities instead of killing him. There has not been any confirmation that Los Metros was responsible for the tip to U.S. authorities, but even if it was not, it will benefit from the hit taken by its intra-cartel rivals with the loss of their leader. It appears Costilla Sanchez has already begun efforts to consolidate power before the Los Rojos faction has a chance to reorganize and name a new leader. Such efforts will likely include putting out orders to kill other Los Rojos faction leaders, which may explain why Jose Luis "Comandante Wicho" Zuniga Hernandez, believed to be Cardenas Vela's deputy and operations leader of the Matamoros plaza, reportedly turned himself in to U.S. authorities without a fight near Santa Maria, Texas, on Oct. 28. The Los Metros faction will try to move quickly before the Sinaloa cartel or Los Zetas conclude that now is the time to make a move to seize control of the Gulf cartel's territory.
Spike of Violence in Baja California Sur
The small coastal city of Cabo San Lucas experienced an unusual surge of violence during the previous week. On Oct. 25, police commander Martin Marquez Ruiz was shot to death by gunmen. Three days later, state police and military forces reportedly searching for Marquez Ruiz's killers raided a home in Brisas del Pacifico and were engaged by gunmen in a lengthy gunfight around midnight. Witnesses reported hearing grenade explosions, and the battle left one Mexican marine and two gunmen dead. The following day, on Oct. 29, municipal police confronted gunmen at the Plaza Sendero retail mall after the gunmen entered the shopping complex hoping to evade capture. Some reports indicate that a two-hour firefight took place and that the gunmen took hostages, though these reports were later denied by Mexico's Defense Ministry. It is unclear if the gunfights on Oct. 28 and Oct. 29 were connected, but the fact that they took place at all is notable. For the last two years, Baja California Sur has been one of Mexico's least violent regions due to the Sinaloa cartel's undisputed control over the area as well as the territory's relative undesirability because it lacks commercial ports that facilitate the importing and exporting of drugs and precursor chemicals. Consisting mainly of quiet coastal fishing villages and lacking significant transportation corridors, the resorts and tourism sector are the main generators of economic activity. It is highly unlikely that another cartel would be attempting to challenge Sinaloa's hold on the territory through the recent wave of violence, and the rapid succession of incidents may have simply been a coincidence. However, there are a few other potential explanations. The most likely of these is that local street gangs involved in the retail drug market, mainly selling their product to tourists, ran afoul of local authorities and decided to retaliate against the police commander. If these small drug organizations are not outright controlled by Sinaloa, they are almost certainly buying their drugs from Sinaloa to resale to tourists, and thus the cartel will be able to curtail this behavior if it wishes simply by not selling drugs to the gangs or by standing aside and allowing the police to wipe them out. Another potential cause could be that a local subgroup within the Sinaloa cartel attempted to assert its independence by taking on the authorities. (Because the cartel has coexisted for some time with and is known to have infiltrated police and security forces in Baja California, it would have little reason to upset this dynamic by attacking security forces.) In this circumstance, we would expect Sinaloa to quickly deal with this situation and bring any independent elements back under control by allowing local police to handle the matter in a similar manner to the street gangs or by taking out the wayward cartel members themselves. (click here to view interactive map)
Oct. 25
Mexican authorities arrested Carlos Arturo "El Bam Bam" Pitalua Carrillo, Los Zetas' plaza boss of Veracruz, Veracruz state, in that city. Five other Zetas members were detained with Pitalua Carrillo.
Two dismembered bodies were discovered in a taxi in Acapulco, Guerrero state, with a narcomanta purportedly signed by the Independent Cartel of Acapulco.
Oct. 26
Mexican authorities discovered several secret graves after receiving an anonymous tip in Cuauhtemoc, Chihuahua state. Authorities have not released details on the number of bodies found.
The body of a decapitated male was discovered in a vehicle in Acapulco, Guerrero state.
Customs officials seized 491 kilograms (1,082 pounds) of marijuana destined for El Paso, Texas, at a customs checkpoint in Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua state.
Oct. 27
Mexican authorities seized 4.1 kilograms of heroin from an individual at Mexico City International Airport. The individual was detained before boarding a flight to Paris.
Oct. 28
The newly established Civil Force of Nuevo Leon arrested five individuals and freed a kidnapping victim from a residence in Monterrey, Nuevo Leon state.
Mexican soldiers raided a reported cartel base near Cadereyta, Nuevo Leon state. No individuals were arrested but weapons, ammunition, vehicles and 1 kilogram of marijuana were seized.
Gunmen killed two municipal police officers in Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua state, while the officers were traveling in a vehicle.
Oct. 29
Mexican authorities seized 1.3 kilograms of heroin from an individual traveling from Huatabampo, Sonora state, to Nogales, Sonora state. The individual was transporting the heroin in his shoes.
Mexican authorities conducted a raid on a residence in Cabo San Lucas, Baja California Sur state, following the killing of police commander Martin Marquez Ruiz in the city on Oct. 24. During the raid, gunmen engaged the authorities in a firefight that left one Mexican marine and two gunmen dead.
Authorities in Guadalajara, Jalisco state, discovered two severed pig heads in ice coolers with narcomantas allegedly directed at the Jalisco state Public Security Secretariat. The contents of the message have not been released.
Oct. 30
A group of gunmen attacked the Veracruz-Boca del Rio Intermunicipal Police Station in Veracruz, Veracruz state. Three gunmen were killed after being pursued by police.
Nov. 1
Several gunbattles occurred in Saltillo, Coahuila state, beginning at about 2 p.m. In one firefight, rival groups of gunmen from the Gulf cartel and Los Zetas drove through neighborhoods on the east side of the city, during which one unidentified individual was killed. The fighting took place in the neighborhoods of Los Cerritos, Praderas, Magisterio, Los Maestros and Guanajuato. The inter-cartel battles triggered responses from local and federal authorities. Another gunbattle occurred in the immediate vicinity of the Instituto Tecnologico de Saltillo campus between a group of gunmen and Mexican marines. Fighting spread through the east and north-central portions of Saltillo over several hours, with two police officers and one gunman being killed and several state or federal police officers wounded.
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