Security is a constant concern at any major sporting event. The upcoming Pan American Games — to be held in Mexico's second-largest city and Jalisco state capital, Guadalajara — are no exception. The foremost security concerns for the games arise from the wars between criminal cartels, especially since Guadalajara is highly coveted by the cartels. According to a security assessment by the U.S. State Department's Overseas Security Advisory Council (OSAC), approximately 100,000 visitors and as many as 5,500 athletes are expected to attend the events in the city of 4.4 million. STRATFOR, too, has examined current conditions in the region and their possible impact on the safety of the athletes, spectators, sponsors and dignitaries who will be in attendance.

The Games

Guadalajara is actually set to host two major international sporting events: the Pan American Games from Oct. 14 to Oct. 30 and the Parapan American Games from Nov. 12 to Nov. 20. We will focus on the higher-profile Pan American Games. Though the overall visitor presence in the region will be smaller for the Parapan American Games, the same venues will be used and the same dynamics will be in play. Athletes from 42 countries will compete in 46 sporting events in Guadalajara and several outlying venues. The opening and closing ceremonies will be held Oct. 14 and Oct. 30, respectively, in Omnilife Stadium, adjacent to the athletes' village in northeast Guadalajara. Athletes' village with Omnilife Stadium in background Several athletic complexes, stadiums and clubs in greater Guadalajara will host the bulk of the competitions. Those events will include nearly all of the track and field competitions; basketball; softball; swimming, synchronized swimming, and diving events; gymnastics; field hockey; martial arts; boxing; weight lifting; Greco-Roman wrestling; handball, squash, badminton, racquetball and tennis; archery; cycling; bowling; football (aka soccer); rugby; and Basque pelota, a traditional Latin American game. Venues on the Pacific coast in Puerto Vallarta will host the triathlon, sailing, beach volleyball and open-water swimming events. Three venues northwest of Guadalajara will host the modern pentathlon, stadium equestrian competition, equestrian three-day eventing (a combined competition of stadium jumping, dressage and cross-country) and the shooting competition. The mountain bike circuit venue is south of Guadalajara in Tapalpa, while the lake venue for rowing, kayaking and canoeing events is Ciudad Guzman. Finally, the baseball competition will be held northeast of Guadalajara in the industrial city of Lagos de Moreno. (click here to enlarge image)

The Cartel Wars

As laid out in our 2010 Cartel Annual Report, and in the first quarter and second quarter updates for 2011, the cartel wars have been escalating across the length and breadth of Mexico, increasing in complexity over the last year and a half. Guadalajara and Jalisco state play a key role in that struggle, as they occupy a strategic location offering control of both north-south and east-west smuggling routes, proximity to huge opium poppy and marijuana growing regions (and thereby control of access to those regions) and access to the huge domestic drug market of Guadalajara itself. Smuggling has long been a lucrative source of income along the U.S.-Mexican border, whether it was alcohol during the Prohibition era in the 1920s or guns, narcotics or illegal immigrants today. The flow of South American cocaine that shifted to Mexico after interdiction efforts in the Caribbean were ramped up in the 1980s dramatically increased this profitability. The Mexican smugglers who benefited most from this shift included Miguel Angel Felix Gallardo, Ernesto Fonseca Carrillo and Rafael Caro Quintero, who would go on to form a Guadalajara-based organization known as the Guadalajara cartel. This group became the most powerful narcotics-smuggling organization in the country and perhaps the world, controlling virtually all of the narcotics being smuggled into the United States from Mexico. The Guadalajara cartel was dismantled after the United States and Mexico reacted to the group's 1985 kidnapping, torture and murder of U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration special agent Enrique Camarena. From the remnants of the Guadalajara cartel, however, emerged smaller organizations that would become the Arellano Felix Organization (aka Tijuana cartel), the Vicente Carrillo Fuentes organization (aka the Juarez cartel), the Gulf cartel and the Sinaloa cartel. The large number of major cartel organizations that grew out of the Guadalajara cartel demonstrates the immense power and geographic reach the group once wielded. Even after the demise of the Guadalajara cartel, the city of Guadalajara remained important for drug smuggling operations due to its location in relation to Mexico's highway and railroad systems and its proximity to Mexico's largest port in Manzanillo. The port plays an important role in cocaine smuggling and has become a very important point of entry for precursor chemicals used in the manufacture of methamphetamine. For many years, the Sinaloa cartel faction headed by Ignacio "El Nacho" Coronel Villarreal was in charge of the Guadalajara plaza. Although Guadalajara and the state of Jalisco continued to be an important component of the cocaine trade, El Nacho became known as "the king of crystal" due to his organization's heavy involvement in the methamphetamine trade. Until July 2010, Guadalajara was relatively stable and prosperous under the control of the Sinaloa cartel and El Nacho, who directly ran that region of western Mexico. Violence began to escalate sharply as factions within the Sinaloa organization fought to take control when El Nacho's killing that month left a power vacuum. Along with the opium and marijuana farm assets in the region, large methamphetamine production, operations and distribution networks have been based in many portions of Jalisco state, including within the city of Guadalajara. El Nacho's nephew Martin Beltran Coronel took over operations in the region on behalf of Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman Loera, the leader of the Sinaloa cartel. Transitions in the narcotics world rarely go smoothly, and indeed at least five other cartels and organizations are fighting to wrest control from Sinaloa (and everyone else). They are La Resistencia and the Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion, both based in Guadalajara; Los Zetas; the Knights Templar; and Cartel Pacifico Sur (CPS). (click here to enlarge image) There is a high probability that conflict will continue between the players involved, with or without the additional element of Mexican forces. Even so, some diminution in the overall violence is likely in the Greater Guadalajara area during the games, due to greatly increased security efforts by the state and federal government. Though STRATFOR by no means expects a complete cessation of violence, we do not expect to see any direct attacks upon, or intended disruptions of, the Pan American Games, as criminal organizations in Mexico have no motivation to conduct major operations that would harm their interests. As the games commence, we will be monitoring two main issues pertaining to the cartel wars that may impact visitors and competitors during the games. The first is the possibility of actions by Sinaloa operators directly in association with the games — paralleling an event when President Felipe Calderon visited Acapulco earlier this year and dismembered bodies were placed in high-visibility areas near where Calderon was speaking. The perpetrators apparently intended to signal that they, not Calderon, were in control of the city. STRATFOR suspects a similar event, or series of events, could occur in Guadalajara during the Pan American Games. Should something of this nature occur, it probably would be coordinated with Calderon's presence, likely during the day of the opening ceremony. The presence of so many members of the international media and authority figures would magnify such a message. The second issue of concern during the Pan American Games is that attendees could happen to find themselves in the wrong place at the wrong time, for instance getting caught in the crossfire of running gunbattles. Some areas of the city are far more prone to such incidents than others. Within Guadalajara itself, the sports venues are situated in the northern (generally more upscale) half of the city. Except to make use of the airport, which is at the southern end of the city, there is no reason for game attendees to stray into the southern half of the city, the area most affected by cartel violence and gunbattles. Another facet of the same "wrong place, wrong time" threat should be addressed: namely, the risks associated with traveling between Guadalajara and outlying venues. Conditions along the 320-kilometer (200-mile) mountainous drive between the city and coastal venues in Puerto Vallarta will be impossible for security forces to monitor and control effectively. Of the six organizations mentioned above, Los Zetas, Sinaloa and the CPS have demonstrated highly effective ambush skills and tactics. Again, the likelihood of spectators or competitors being targeted directly is low, but cartel operations in the region intended to net opposition fighters could unintentionally impact visitors. As we have mentioned in other security pieces, the cartels consistently have displayed a complete disregard for the presence of bystanders once gunbattles are under way.

Crime

As always, when traveling in Mexico, it is important for visitors to maintain good situational awareness and to take precautions in order to reduce the threat of becoming a victim of a crime. In most cases, visitors will be more vulnerable to criminals out to make a quick buck than to cartel violence. Pickpockets, muggers, counterfeit ticket scalpers and express kidnappers will all be looking for easy targets during the games, so security precautions need to be taken. Guadalajara, as all of Mexico, has a declining security environment. According to the OSAC's 2011 Guadalajara crime and security report, crimes of all types have increased in Guadalajara over the past year, including both violent and petty crime. Mexico has a problem with corruption, especially at lower levels of their police forces, something that must be taken into account when dealing with police officers. Criminals will consider the Pan American Games a target-rich environment. They will assume security at the venues will be high, although pickpockets and other petty criminals will be working the crowds. Most security measures at the venue will be for major crimes, and professional thieves will have little trouble blending in. Criminals will be even more active on public transportation, around tourist hot spots and restaurants and bars. Criminals in Mexico are usually looking for the easiest way to make money. They will therefore look for signs that a potential target is wealthy and displays low situational awareness. In Mexico, foreigners are perceived as being wealthy — if they were not, they would not be traveling. Some indicators of a person of means include expensive clothing or accessories, especially watches and shoes. Cellphones, nice wallets and large amounts of cash also catch the attention of criminals, and purses or bags left on the ground or hanging off chairs are easy targets. Criminals also look for backpacks or other bags not strapped across the chest. A common technique is to use a razor blade to slice open the bag and remove its contents when the victim is distracted. The easiest place for this type of criminal to operate is on public transportation or in crowds because of the compact nature of the setting and the inability of victims to identify who stole their items. Some criminals will loiter around money exchange operations. To exchange money, one must of course bring the money into sight, and thieves can see how much a victim has and where he or she keeps it. Such criminals will sometimes use weapons, although it is typically unnecessary in such a target-rich environment as the Pan American Games. As evidenced through Mexico's drug war, it should be assumed that a criminal who draws a weapon intends to use it. Thieves and kidnappers also target ATMs that are not inside a bank, hotel lobby or other secure location. They can set up "dummy" ATMs, typically putting a false front on top of the actual ATM, or a smaller external card reader device on top of the existing card slot, that will read and store the card's data as it passes through to the ATM's functioning card reader. They then use either a camera hidden behind the ATM or a scanner to capture the PIN number of the credit or debit card. This procedure is known as "skimming." Some taxi drivers are criminals or are working with criminals involved in kidnappings, theft or worse. At minimum, a driver could take a visitor to a dangerous part of town and blackmail him to return home. At worst, the driver could become violent or assist in a kidnapping. Kidnappers also conduct surveillance near ATMs, watching for potential targets of express kidnappings. Criminals will typically seize and hold the victim until bank accounts are emptied, which can sometimes take several days. The kidnappers may also want a ransom to be paid, which of course makes the situation more complicated. The victim is in many cases released, but not always. There will be many executives in attendance at the games who are directly involved as representatives of the large multinational corporate sponsors of the Pan American Games. While these individuals will have protective details with them, some of the kidnapping-for-ransom organizations in Mexico may be watching for opportunities to snatch high-value targets — and not just at the public venues. Criminals find inebriated victims easy prey. It is very common for Mexican thieves to target local nightspots known for attracting tourists. Date rape drugs can be used not only for rape but for robbery as well. In such scenarios, criminals typically watch for someone to stop paying attention to his or her drink, at which point they slip the pill in the bottle or cup and wait. Criminals also seek people who are alone or who display poor awareness, especially at night. If a potential target is listening to headphones or otherwise not paying attention to their surroundings, they are more inviting for criminals. Criminals also will look for targets who are isolated, away from public view or in a location where there is little or no chance of escape.

The Terrorism Threat

STRATFOR does not expect any large-scale terrorist attacks from Islamist or jihadi groups for several reasons. First, the games are not being held in the United States or another Western country where jihadist terrorist groups tend to seek targets. Second, because there is an existing cartel war, security for the Pan American Games will be as tight as the host and guest countries can make it. Also, the jihadist threat today in the Western Hemisphere predominantly emanates from grassroots cells and lone actors. Such operatives are unlikely to attack a highly secured target. Third, while press from across the world will be covering the events, there will be few viable targets within the demonstrated preferences for Islamist groups. As for other special-interest terrorist groups, we see a low likelihood for the appearance of anti-technology, animal rights, earth-rights or Marxist groups — however, they cannot be ruled out. In August, an anti-nanotechnology group sent two parcel bombs to two universities in Mexico City. One of the explosive devices seriously injured two professors. The same group claimed responsibility for a third parcel that was not ever found or reported as having detonated. The bottom line is that while there is the potential for one or more small-scale attacks, terrorist attacks as a whole are rather unlikely.

Miscellaneous Security Issues and Disaster Response

One element of the overall security environment facing the competitors, spectators and officials attending the Pan American Games is not of human making or intent. Guadalajara sits just east of a significant and rather active tectonic subduction zone. The western coastal region within 320 kilometers of Guadalajara has been hit four times by earthquakes over magnitude 7.5 in the last 80 years — two in June 1932, one in September 1985 and most recently in January 2003. Because of that potential, and the desire to entice future tourism with demonstrated security and precautions, the government of Mexico probably will have a relatively decent earthquake response program in place. It is likely that visitors will see many well-placed placards in the venues, in multiple languages, offering earthquake safety information. Following the instructions found there would be wise in the event of a significant earthquake during the games. Fire is also a serious concern in the developing world, and visitors to Guadalajara staying in hotels need to ensure that they know where the fire exits are located — and that those fire exits are not blocked or locked. First-time visitors to Mexico will find that the traffic in Mexico's cities is terrible — and Guadalajara is no exception. More often than not, there is little regard given to traffic lanes, traffic signals, stop signs or other standard traffic laws that are commonly conformed to in the West. Traffic congestion and traffic accidents are quite common. Visitors to Mexico also need to be mindful of the poor quality of the country's water and the possibility of contracting a waterborne illness from drinking water or from eating improperly prepared food. Privately operated medical facilities in Mexico are well-equipped for all levels of medical care, and foreign visitors should choose private over public (government-operated) health care facilities. Private medical services can also stabilize a patient and facilitate a medical transfer to another country (such as the United States), should the need arise.

Security Preparation

According to media and U.S. State Department sources, Mexican authorities are coordinating security for the Pan American Games with federal police forces, Jalisco state police, municipal police and elements of both the naval and army branches of the Mexican military. Mexico will provide some 10,000 security personnel (5,000 of whom will be federal police) and will be responsible for securing the competition venues as well as increasing the presence of law enforcement in tourist areas and around hotels and the airport. Military assets will be patrolling the roads and probably providing supplemental forces in the largest venues as well as those in the outlying municipalities where there may be less of a police presence. According to STRATFOR sources in the Mexican media, the Jalisco state government allocated 100 million pesos ($7.26 million) to augment security in the metropolitan area. The funding covered the additional manpower needed and the acquisition of security equipment such as metal detector portals, drug and explosives detection equipment, and vehicles and special uniforms for the security forces. Sources also indicated that canine units will be on patrol, along with airborne assets providing coverage with Blackhawk and Colibri helicopters. All ground and air security assets will be networked, and federal elements will have a real-time connection with the Federal Command Center in Mexico City. The overall security program is reported to cover all pertinent areas: sports venues, hotels, airports, highways, training facilities and host cities. Additionally, as some of the sports delegations were expected to ship their equipment by sea, security will be augmented at the ports of Manzanillo and Veracruz. The construction of the Pan Am athletes' village, recently completed, includes perimeter security walls and a controlled entry, as seen in the architect's rendering. Bird's eye view of Pan Am athletes' village Entry to the venues will require possession of a ticket, successful screening through security and metal detectors and a security search of bags and pockets. Additionally, for the purposes of security and to mitigate traffic congestion, there will not be any parking available close to any of the venues, according to media reports. In all cases, there will be guarded shuttle buses to transport spectators between venues. Furthermore, there will be about 210 kilometers of dedicated lanes on the major thoroughfares, including the route between the airport and the northern sector of the city as well as between the venues. The dedicated lanes will be reserved for moving Pan American officials, competitors, judges, security personnel and dignitaries. The lanes will be accessible by all motorists but, in the same fashion that drivers must move aside to allow emergency vehicles to pass, all motorists must yield their use of the lane to the "accredited vehicles." Heavy fines will be imposed upon drivers who fail to yield. The designated Pan Am lanes will begin operation on Oct. 9 and will continue through the two weeks of the games. Contact information for spectator services at the Pan American Games in Guadalajara may be found on the official website — included are phone numbers for law enforcement, fire services, tourist services and emergency response services.