Iranian authorities
released two American hikers who had been imprisoned in Tehran since being detained while hiking along the Iran-Iraq border in July 2009. The hikers, sentenced Aug. 20 to eight years in prison for espionage, were released on $1 million bail. A third hiker detained at the same time had previously been released in September 2010. The delay over their release underscores the depths of
Tehran's internal power struggle, with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad rebuffed by other factions in the government after publicly announcing the hikers would be freed. Both the more populist faction in the Iranian government, represented by Ahmadinejad, and his rivals in the clerical establishment understand that Iran's current position has given it a historic opportunity to reshape the region: Political turmoil is engulfing its Arab neighbors, the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq is nearly complete and Turkey has not yet stepped into its natural role as a
regional counterbalance to Iranian power. However, none of these factors can be expected to persist indefinitely, and internal divisions could hamper Iran's ability pursue the kind of unified foreign policy needed to capitalize on its opportunity and cement its position as the dominant power in the region. Ahmadinejad promised Sept. 13 the hikers would be released within days, but the Iranian judiciary countermanded the announcement almost immediately. The judiciary announced that it, not the president, would make the decision on when and if the hikers would be released, first stating that the deal authorizing their release for bail was still under review and later that the judge needed to approve the deal was on vacation. The judiciary is led by a prominent rival to the Iranian president, Sadeq Larijani, whose brother Ali Larijani is the current parliamentary speaker. The Larijanis and Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei form the backbone of the clerical establishment that Ahmadinejad, as a populist conservative, has accused of being corrupt, betraying the revolution and ignoring the demands of the poor. Regardless of the declared reasons for the delay on releasing the hikers, there is little doubt that the postponement was intended to embarrass Ahmadinejad and make him appear powerless before an international audience. Since Ahmadinejad's re-election in 2009, the clerical elite have worked to
marginalize Ahmadinejad as an individual, and to a large degree they have succeeded, even though he represents a set of grievances that will outlast him on the Iranian political scene. This internal power struggle comes at an inconvenient time for Tehran, as the United States prepares to complete its withdrawal from Iraq. Washington has been lobbying the Iraqi government — currently unsuccessfully — to keep a significant residual troop presence in the country as a way to contain Iranian influence. With the U.S. military presence removed from its neighbor, Iran's proxies in the country would be freed up considerably. Tehran and Washington have quietly been holding talks on what the future of Iraq will look like, and Iran wants to use its position of strength as a way to reach an understanding with the United States on Iran's terms. Ahmadinejad has attempted to reach this sort of accord with the United States but has been held back by his rivals at home who do not want him to be able to take credit for such a foreign policy coup. These domestic divisions are a major issue in their own right for Iran, but the larger question is whether they will cripple the country's ability to make important foreign policy decisions, especially at this crucial juncture. Tehran has an opportunity to reshape the region and move toward an accommodation with the United States in a way that cements Iranian power at its current high ebb for the foreseeable future, an opportunity it will not likely soon have again, given that Turkey's limited role and the political chaos in the Arab world cannot be expected to last indefinitely. Capitalizing on the situation is a complicated process, and one that cannot be done without a coherent foreign policy approach, which, as the hiker situation demonstrated, has not yet been realized. Whether Iran's factions are able to speak with one voice on foreign policy in the future is not clear, but the stakes are increasing and the time to seize the opportunity is dwindling.