Kyrgyz Prime Minister Almazbek Atambayev formally announced Aug. 15 that he would be a candidate in Kyrgyzstan's upcoming presidential election. On the same day, Atambayev said the U.S. air base at Manas should be closed once its lease expires in 2014. Atambayev is currently the front-runner in Kyrgyzstan's presidential race, with elections scheduled for Oct. 30, and his views therefore shed light on the direction the strategically important but volatile country is going both domestically and in foreign policy. Atambayev has served as the prime minister under the interim government of President Roza Otunbayeva since shortly after the April 2010 uprising in Kyrgyzstan, which swept former President Kurmanbek Bakiyev out of power and ushered in a parliamentary system of government — a rarity in Central Asia. Since the revolution, the newly instituted parliamentary government has struggled to maintain stability in the deeply divided country, leading many to call for a return to a stronger presidency. But because of its tensions, any bold moves by the future president — be it Atambayev or someone else — could lead to a further deterioration in stability.

Relations with Russia

Since the April revolution, Kyrgyzstan has substantially increased its cooperation with Russia. Atambayev has positioned himself as a staunch ally of Russia, and though most candidates boast a similar pro-Russian platform, Atambayev has had the opportunity to prove his claims during his time as prime minister. Atambayev has made many visits to Moscow to meet with Russian leadership — during which he brokered important deals in the energy and economic realms — and he has thrown his support behind Kyrgyzstan's accession into the Russian-dominated customs union with Belarus and Kazakhstan. Atambayev's statement regarding the closure of the U.S. Transit Center at Manas — which serves as a key logistical hub for U.S. operations in Afghanistan and is Washington's only military base in Central Asia — is further proof of his alignment with Russia. Though the base was expected by many to be closed after its lease expires in 2014, Atambayev has solidified this as his official policy should he win the presidency. Atambayev elaborated on his views on Manas, stating that certain international obligations have had a negative effect on Kyrgyzstan's image, and therefore Kyrgyzstan must "execute an already concluded agreement." Atambayev's statement comes as Russia and the United States are at odds over the latter's ballistic missile defense plans for Central Europe, which Moscow has adamantly opposed. Amid this standoff, Russia has sought to show its leverage over the United States in any way, such as by building ties with Iran. Gaining the loyalty of Kyrgyzstan and one of its preeminent politicians is one more step in that process. Moscow and Bishkek also are engaged in talks to open a second military base in the southern city of Osh and to create a unified military command for Russian facilities across the country.

Turning Back to a Presidential System

But Atambayev's strong ties with Russia do not mean that Moscow's position is secure regarding Bishkek. Kyrgyzstan is split geographically and politically between its northern and southern regions. When Kyrgyzstan became a parliamentary republic following the April revolution, it removed the authoritarian system of government in the country — the very system that led to two revolutions in the country in the previous six years. But the transition to a parliamentary republic also weakened and diluted the power of government to arguably its lowest point since gaining independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. The interim government's limited control over the security services, particularly in the south, exposed the limits of a parliamentary system in a country as internally divided as Kyrgyzstan. It also led to periods of instability for the country, which were especially evident during the ethnic riots in the country's southern regions of Osh and Jalal-Abad in June 2010, only two months after the ouster of Bakiyev. The interim government's inability to keep the country secure has led many to call for a return to a stronger presidency. In this context, most candidates, including Atambayev, are campaigning on the platform of returning certain powers given to the parliament back to the presidency. A stronger president would be able to wield a firmer grip over the country and could make and execute decisions (such as on the Manas air base and on security deals with Russia) more seamlessly than the weak and apparently unstable parliamentary system of the past year. However, the country was unable to overcome its divisions even before the transition to a parliamentary system, when it was governed by a strong centralized presidency. Additionally, because Atambayev is a northerner and has more limited support in the south, any bold moves he makes will be under close scrutiny by a population that is prone to protests. Therefore, while Atambayev will likely facilitate a stronger position for Russia in Kyrgyzstan, any bold moves — by Atambayev or whoever gains the post — as a result of increased presidential power could raise the risk of instability in the country. As with everything in Kyrgyzstan, any major decisions require careful management or else they could threaten Bishkek's control and Moscow's influence in the country.