Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski issued a formal apology Aug. 12 for the release of sensitive information, including financial data, about several Belarusian opposition figures and groups operating in Poland to authorities in Minsk. This follows Lithuania's revelation Aug. 5 that it had released information on Belarusian opposition groups to the Belarusian government. It remains unclear exactly why this information was released to Belarusian authorities, who have used the data to arrest prominent rights activists and opposition figures. Whatever the cause, these developments have damaged Lithuania's and Poland's reputations as havens for the Belarusian opposition and will hamper Vilnius and Warsaw in their geopolitical competition with Moscow over Belarus. Investigations into the release of information are being held in both Lithuania and Poland. The Lithuanian Justice Ministry, which released the information to its Belarusian counterpart, has said the data release occurred under legal and technical norms. Lithuanian Justice Minister Remigijus Simasius said that Minsk's request for information was treated as a "routine question" and that the ministry was not aware of the political status of the people involved. Simasius added that if the ministry had known Minsk would use the information to crack down on opposition figures, it would have acted differently. Meanwhile, the Polish Foreign Ministry issued an official statement that Belarus obtained the information from the Polish Prosecutor General's office by "taking advantage of a system of international procedures designed to counter terrorist and criminal threats." However, several groups, including many within the Belarusian opposition, are disputing these explanations. Ales Michalevic, a former Belarusian presidential candidate who resides in Warsaw, called the actions of the Polish Prosecutor General's office a "betrayal." Some within Poland and Lithuania are questioning the reason for the information release, as evidenced by Sikorski's statement that it was a "scandalous mistake" for the Prosecutor General's office to release the information despite warnings from the Foreign Ministry. Similar discrepancies between Lithuania's Justice Ministry and Foreign Ministry are creating controversy within the country's political system. These developments are controversial because EU members Lithuania and Poland are two of the most fervent supporters of the opposition in Belarus. Lithuania and Poland have long served as places for Belarusian opposition figures and groups to live and operate and have helped these groups in terms of funding and organization. The Belarusian opposition has sought refuge in Lithuania and Poland for political reasons — these groups are either banned or pursued by security forces within Belarus — and for logistical reasons, as Vilnius is near the Belarusian border and only a few hours' drive from Minsk and Poland is also nearby. But there is also a geopolitical context to this opposition activity: Poland and Lithuania want to counter Russia's resurgence into its former Soviet periphery, which has been particularly strong in Belarus. Warsaw and Vilnius both have cultural and historical links to Belarus, and it is in their interest to counter Russia's growing influence over Minsk and at the very least keep Belarus neutral. Thus, Poland and Lithuania have been supporting the Belarusian opposition and trying to bring the country closer to Europe. This support has grown considerably this past year since Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko rebuffed the Europeans and has been forced to further accede to Russia's demands as a result of growing financial and economic problems in Belarus. Poland hosted a Belarusian opposition conference in February 2010 and has made Belarus' closer integration with the European Union one of the main priorities of its EU presidency. Lithuania spearheaded the sanctions regime against Lukashenko and has vocally opposed Russian and Belarusian energy plans in the Baltic region. Given Poland's and Lithuania's interest in wooing Belarus, it is strange that both countries would release sensitive information regarding opposition groups to Belarusian authorities. The investigations launched in both countries will tell whether there were in fact technical and legal causes for the information release or whether there were more political aspects to Vilnius' and Warsaw's actions. What is clear is that these recent developments will complicate Lithuania's and Poland's efforts to strengthen the opposition in Belarus. Regardless of the reason for the release of information to Belarus, Lithuania's and Poland's reputations as effective supporters of the Belarusian opposition have been called into question. This does not mean they will not continue supporting the opposition — they will — but now Belarusian opposition groups and nongovernmental organizations operating in Lithuania and Poland will be concerned that they are less safe. This means that the efforts of the two countries that have been most active in bringing Belarus closer to Europe and away from Russia's influence are facing a major setback, to Moscow's delight.
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