Analyst Eugene Chausovsky examines the internal and external threats facing Tajikistan despite the official completion of special operations to eliminate militants in the Rasht Valley.

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Tajikistan's interior minister said July 20 that the special operation to eliminate militants in the country's eastern region of the Rasht Valley has been completed. The interior minister said that the region is now calm and stable after operations have been ongoing since last September. Despite these positive statements, there are no shortages of threats to Tajikistan's stability, both internally and externally, in the future. The Rasht Valley region has been the site of security sweeps for nearly a year after an August 2010 jailbreak from the Tajik capital of Dushanbe. While the Rasht Valley has long been difficult to control, ever since the country's civil war in the early to mid 1990s, the region became even more troublesome after this jailbreak. This region, which is a rebel stronghold, was the site of several attacks against Tajik security forces that killed dozens of soldiers. However, Tajikistan has shown signs of success in recent months in its security sweeps. Almost all of the roughly two dozen escaped convicts have been either captured or killed, and Tajikistan's most wanted man, Mullah Abdullah, had been reported killed in the sweeps in April. Because of a strategic location in the Ferghana Valley, Tajikistan has drawn the attention of external powers, particularly Russia, which has helped Tajikistan both in terms of intelligence sharing and logistical support in its security sweeps. But despite this progress, not all is in the clear for Tajikistan. As the U.S. begins its withdrawal from Afghanistan this increases their risk of instability in terms of militants and narcotics trafficking via Tajikistan's long and porous border with Afghanistan. Tajikistan also has tense relations with its neighbors in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, and border incidents with both countries have been increasing in recent months. Finally, despite the official announcement of the completion of operations in the Rasht Valley, there are still various political and militant elements within Tajikistan that will pose a problem to the government. Therefore Tajikistan still faces a number of problems, both internally and externally, that will threaten its security going into the future.