Belarusian opposition politician Viktar Ivashkevich on July 8 announced the Narodny Skhod (People's Assembly) opposition movement would hold a nationwide demonstration Oct. 8 against the country's worsening economic conditions and Belarus' political "self-isolation." Ivashkevich said that organizing committees for the Oct. 8 protest have already been formed in 20 cities, and the ultimate goal of Narodny Skhod — which comprises several unregistered opposition parties — is to stage demonstrations in Minsk, all five of Belarus' regional capitals and many of the country's district capitals. The demonstration is a clear and concerted effort by the opposition to step up protest activity against Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko's regime as the country continues to face serious economic problems. Narodny Skhod faces a number of obstacles in succeeding to challenge Lukashenko's grip on power, but the movement gives external players — Poland, in particular — a chance to exploit the economic and political climate in Belarus. Protests have become a regular occurrence in Belarus since December 2010, when Lukashenko ordered state security forces to forcefully disperse opposition groups demonstrating against presidential elections that saw Lukashenko secure another term in office. While this earned condemnation from the West and resulted in the European Union's political isolation of Belarus, it also exposed the pro-Western opposition's inability to challenge Lukashenko — even despite allegations of rigged elections. However, as the country's economic situation has continued to deteriorate since March 2011 (consumer prices in Belarus rose 8.6 percent month-on-month in June, bringing the year-on-year price increase to 43.8 percent, according to a state statistics report issued July 11), citizens have started to protest regularly. On June 7, for example, truck drivers blocked Minsk's main boulevard to protest against rapidly rising fuel prices in the country. While this protest was relatively small — about 100 people — it was significant in that it was one of the first economically motivated — not politically motivated — protests in the country. These protests increase the probability that the momentum behind the current protest movements will grow larger and spread farther. It is reported that around 1,730 people have been detained for protesting over the past month, with 980 of those detentions taking place in Minsk. Groups like Narodny Skhod are trying to take advantage of this situation; Ivashkevich called for a larger showing by the opposition, saying that "events attended by a few thousand people are not effective considering the authorities have 10,000 specially trained security personnel at their disposal." But Narodny Skhod still faces many obstacles in achieving its goals. Lukashenko has shown he has no reservations about cracking down on protest movements, and he will certainly order security forces to disrupt the group's actions prior to Oct. 8. Moreover, the protests that have occurred in the country so far have consisted mostly of young people. The larger protests, which number only in the low thousands, have almost exclusively been limited to Minsk. The demonstrations would necessarily have to expand in terms of demographics and location for Narodny Skhod to realize its goal. Furthermore, the pro-Western opposition in Belarus remains weak, and it has struggled to rally support given its EU-oriented platform. However, the fact that the scheduled date for Narodny Skhod's nationwide protest is three months away could work in the opposition's favor by attracting foreign support from the European Union, which has been promoting the strengthening of opposition groups in Belarus. Especially key to watch in this regard is Poland, which played host to a Belarusian opposition conference in February 2011 and has been actively working to foster opposition movements in Belarus, especially since the election and ensuing opposition crackdowns. Poland, along with countries such as Sweden and Lithuania, are the main proponents of bringing former Soviet countries such as Belarus and Ukraine closer to the EU fold to counter Russia's expanding influence in these countries. They are not likely to pass up a nationwide opposition demonstration after Lukashenko rejected their overtures and was demonstratively uncooperative to their interests. While Poland and the European Union have made some progress in other former Soviet countries, such as Ukraine, Belarus is a much more difficult country for Poland to court, as it is more closely aligned with Russia in the security sphere, and more economically aligned via a customs union. Lukashenko has also been entrenched in power for nearly two decades, and even if there is a leadership change in Belarus, it would very likely retain its orientation toward Russia due to fundamental security and economic interests. Still, if the protest movement is able to pick up enough momentum and seriously challenge Lukashenko's grip on power in the country, this would mark a symbolic victory for Poland at a time when it is actively engaged in challenging Russia in its eastern Europe periphery.