With more than 99 percent of the votes counted May 18, Ecuadorians have voted to approve all 10 proposed constitutional changes in the country's latest referendum, held May 7, by a small margin, giving Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa yet another political victory. The referendum can be seen as a plebiscite directly reflecting Correa's popularity, and although the margin of victory was lower than that of the 2008 constitutional reform, Correa's wide support remains his greatest tool for stability in a country with a history of massive unrest and frequent coups. The changes will alter the text of the 2008 constitution written under Correa's supervision. The questions spanned a wide range of topics, from banning bullfighting and gambling to regulating the judiciary and the media. The referendum comes on the heels of a riot by police officers over spending cuts that left Correa trapped for hours in a hospital. Correa has called the incident a coup attempt and has criticized the media and judicial response to the incident. Two of the questions address the restructuring of the judiciary, setting up the Judicial Council of Transition to oversee changes over the next 18 months. The president, the National Assembly and a council of voters, respectively, will choose the three members of the council. As long as Correa maintains influence over the National Assembly, this measure will centralize control of the structure of the judiciary under his supervision. The other controversial measure creates a citizens' council to regulate the distribution of media content. Correa has a large stake in this issue, as he frequently initiates pitched legal battles with journalists who he alleges report overly negatively on him due to their affiliation with the opposition. Correa undoubtedly counts on being able to strongly influence this council and thus more closely regulate media reporting. Polls ahead of the referendum showed that while the questions were expected to pass with general support, knowledge about the actual content of the referendum among Ecuadorians — for whom voting is compulsory — was extremely low. It is fair to say that the results of the referendum represent a plebiscite directly on Correa himself, who proposed and campaigned for the questions. It is worth noting that the race was tighter this time than in 2008 when Correa first rewrote the country's constitution. In that instance, victory was declared in Correa's favor with 64 percent of the vote. In this case, only one question got more than 50 percent approval (a measure to prevent the expiration of preventative detention of criminal suspects). While other factors could have played a role in the tighter margin, it appears that while Correa still holds enough popularity, it may have declined more than he would wish — particularly because he faces re-election in 2013. Despite the decline in support for sweeping change from 2008 to 2011, Correa still has enough support to push major changes through plebiscite. These changes to the judiciary and increased controls over the media further strengthen Correa's hand in controlling the major institutions of the country. This has been a key element of Correa's governing strategy. From controlling the activities of opposition groups to increased control over the energy sector, Correa has taken a strong hand approach to governing Ecuador. In this case, as long as he maintains control over the legislature as well as his lead in popular opinion, the referendum questions give Correa several more tools that bolster his ability to control political opposition in the volatile country. The key will be for him to implement the changes, and in such a way as to not cause the opposition to form a coherent alliance against him.
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