Recent unrest in the North Africa and the Middle East and an earthquake in Japan have highlighted, among other things, the inability of the Philippine government to manage its sizable community of overseas Filipino workers (OFWs), which represent about 11 percent of the country's total population. In Libya, fighting between government troops and eastern rebels as well as airstrikes by coalition forces have posed a substantial threat to about 30,000 OFWs working in that country, and the emergency evacuation of inhabitants from regions most affected by the earthquake in Japan and the resulting radiation leak has put thousands of OFWs at risk. Exporting OFWs began in the 1970s during the administration of President Ferdinand Marcos to boost economic development after the end of country's post-World War II boom. Economic mismanagement and political instability had led to massive unemployment and poverty throughout the Philippines, a geographically constrained archipelago with not enough land or industry capital to sustain the country's large and growing population. In 1974, Marcos issued a presidential decree, the Labor Code, to deploy Filipino workers abroad to send income home for the country's struggling economy. Following administrations continued and expanded the system — while claiming it was only temporary. During the 2001-2010 administration of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, the OFW-export program was dramatically increased and became institutionalized, with provisions and regulations enacted to protect OFWs and regulate their remittances. Today, of the Philippines' entire labor force of 38 million, there are an estimated 8.5 million to 11 million OFPs working worldwide, as well as several thousand non-registered OFWs. Labor constitutes the second largest "export" for the Philippines after electronics. Meanwhile, the country's economy has come to rely heavily on the remittances, which totaled $18.76 billion in 2010, accounting for 10 percent of the country's gross domestic product. This income also contributes directly to the economic development of a country where 40 percent of the population lives on less than $1 a day, providing money to invest, buy real estate and facilitate domestic consumption (some 70 percent of GDP). STRATFOR sources suggest that the Philippines was able to escape the most severe effects of the global financial crisis largely because of OFW remittances. As enormous as this economic contribution is, however, it also puts the government in an awkward position. Most of the overseas workers are engaged in low-end service or manufacturing jobs, where OFWs are often exploited and mistreated, and more than two-thirds of OFWs reside in the relatively unstable Middle East. While Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, the two countries where most OFWs reside, are relatively stable compared to other countries in the Middle East, recent events have underscored the potential for civil unrest to sweep the region, putting more guest workers at risk. Also, relatively few OFWs have been willing to evacuate the trouble spots and return to the Philippines because there are few jobs with comparable wages at home, where unemployment remains high, at 7-8 percent. This makes it almost impossible for the government to protect these workers and opens the possibility for a domestic political backlash from opposition groups and workers' families. Indeed, understanding the importance of OFW remittances, the government's evacuation efforts so far have been halfhearted. The massive OFW community also challenges the government's capability to deal with diplomatic issues. In February, Manila deported 14 Taiwanese criminals to the Chinese mainland instead of Taiwan, which resulted in a dispute with Taipei. While Manila envisions greater economic benefit from its relationship with Beijing than from its relationship with Taipei, Manila had to scramble to make conciliatory gestures to secure positions for some 70,000-90,000 OFWs in Taiwan when Taipei threatened to freeze the current level of OFW employment. Manila risks losing an estimated $336 million in remittances if Taiwan implements a full freeze and sends the OFWs home, though this is largely a rhetorical threat. Similar consideration also prevented Manila from supporting the recent U.N. Security Council Resolution 1973, which authorized implementation of a no-fly zone over Libya. Even though the Philippines is a long-standing and loyal U.S. ally, Manila fears the Libyan intervention will further destabilize conditions for the workers. One of the Philippine government's emergency measures for Libyan OFWs is financial assistance — 10,000 pesos (about $230) per person waiting to be allocated to about 9,000 OFWs repatriated from Libya. The money is meant to compensate for loss of income in the host country, but many more OFWs are electing to stay in Libya, where their monthly incomes are typically higher than 10,000 pesos. The compensation package for Libyan repatriates has already put a strain on the government budget, limiting the assistance that can be provided to returnees from other countries. Manila initially halted the deployment of OFWs to politically unstable countries such as Bahrain and Yemen for several days but since has lifted the bans. The Philippines' current economic stagnation leaves the government — and the OFW themselves — with few options. Since President Benigno Aquino took office in June, he has vowed to reduce the deployment of OFWs and called for the creation of more jobs domestically for returning workers. However, his campaign is more rhetoric than reality — if anything, there has been an increase in OFW deployment and remittances since June. The country's economy is recovering very slowly from the recession, and the poverty rate remains high throughout the archipelago. Meanwhile, the Philippines is still not a country that welcomes foreign investment, and the public-private partnership that Aquino actively campaigned for is at only a nascent stage. This makes a massive job-creation program impossible and any drastic policy shifts unlikely any time soon. In an effort to offer greater protection for its OFWs, the government has considered compulsory insurance coverage for overseas workers and deploying them only to certain "certified" countries, but this, too, has been difficult to implement due to the additional costs involved both to the government and to the employers. One likely effect would also be a reduction in outgoing workers and incoming remittances, further incentivizing the exodus of non-registered OFWs without legal protections and subject to maltreatment. The only immediate option for Manila could be to wait until things calm down and to redeploy those OFWs back to Japan or other countries, and at the same time, look for other host countries — outside of Libya and other unstable countries in the Middle East and North African regions — for an OFW community that is still extremely important for the country's bottom line.
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