Moscow is buzzing with rumors that Russian President Dmitri Medvedev will name his chief of staff, Sergei Naryshkin, head of the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), replacing Mikhail Fradkov. As STRATFOR said in its annual forecast, a series of reshuffles is in the works for key figures in the country before the 2011 parliamentary elections and 2012 presidential election. This is a move typical of former Russian President and current Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, who reshuffled his government multiple times before the 2004 and 2008 elections and is behind the rumored shift. Putin's goal has been to keep the country's elite in check and show that he can discard anyone in the government should they act out against him or attempt to develop a strong power base capable of countering him via their hold on certain institutions. According to STRATFOR sources in Moscow, there is some concern in the government about who is on the list for either reshuffling or removal. This round's first major reshuffle is not as controversial as some in the past. Fradkov, who was Russia's prime minister in 2004 and has been head of the SVR since 2007, will reportedly shift to head the Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, replacing Yevgeny Primakov. According to STRATFOR sources, Primakov, who has been SVR director, foreign minister and prime minister, will be stepping back from the limelight and will unofficially advise Putin behind the scenes. Fradkov's replacement, Naryshkin, is a figure most of the Kremlin's players can agree on to head the SVR. Naryshkin is considered neutral among the Kremlin's clans, though as former KGB he has close personal ties with clan leader Igor Sechin. But Naryshkin also worked with Putin in St. Petersburg, where he formed ties to many of the pro-Westerners in the opposing clan. Naryshkin has a diverse background of work in military and foreign policy circles on issues concerning the Commonwealth of Independent States, the European Union and the Far East; he has also worked for Rosneft and advised Gazprom. But even if most of the Kremlin can accept Naryshkin as the new head of the SVR, the point of the moves is for Putin to keep everyone in the Kremlin off balance. This is how Putin demonstrates his control over all those in the country, no matter how high up they are.
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