In a conversation with Israel's Channel 10 on Thursday, Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB) top leader Essam el-Erian said, "Muslim Brotherhood is not considered a radical organization. This is not a violent organization. However, if Israel will open an offensive against Egypt, the situation may change. You talk to the Egyptian people, it's up to the Egyptian people. We can make a future referendum on peace with Israel. Israelis have nothing to fear except the crimes they perpetrate." In an interview Wednesday with National Public Radio, el-Erian, who is a senior member of the MB's leadership committee, said, "I think the credibility between Egypt and Israel these days is very low. After the appeal of (Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu that America must support (Egyptian President Hosni) Mubarak, I think this statement is very dangerous for stability here now. The peace is a very cold peace between the Egyptians and the Israelis. It needs a revision." He added, "The people are not rushing for war. But it is not our duty to protect Israel from Palestinians. We are not guards for Israel." Even if the MB were to emerge as a sizable bloc, it would still have to work with the military and all the other elements of the establishment as well as other political forces, which can circumscribe its moves. This statement relates to the most important potential foreign policy implication of the Egyptian uprising that is likely to consume the Mubarak government and impact U.S. and Israeli interests. The 1978 Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty allowed Israel to neutralize the largest military threat from the Arab world and the United States earned a key ally that could help Washington manage Arab-Israeli relations. Within three years of the signing of the peace treaty, then-Egyptian President Anwar El Sadat was assassinated by Islamist militants much more radical than the MB, and for the past three decades, the government of his successor, Mubarak, has upheld the treaty. The future of the peace treaty in a post-Mubarakian era has been an issue of concern, given Mubarak's advanced age and ill health, as well as the fact that his colleagues (civil and military) have been locked in a tug of war over the succession. But now that public agitation that began about 10 days ago has brought Mubarak's presidency to the point of near collapse and there are fears that Egypt's best organized and single-largest political force could have a significant share of power, the concerns about the fate of Egyptian-Israeli relations have become even more acute. It is not clear to what extent the MB will have a share in a future Egyptian government. From the Israeli point of view, the statements from the MB — even if they do not directly translate into a vow to abrogate the peace treaty — constitute the biggest threat to Israeli national security. The crisis within Egypt is such that Israel doesn't have too many options to ensure that the region's largest Arab state doesn't return to the days of hostile relations with the Jewish state. There are limits to working with the Egyptian military establishment. Meanwhile, the Israelis are trying to get the United States to use its influence over Egypt to ensure that a future government will not engage in any radical foreign policy moves. At this stage, it is important to examine the potential for such a shift in the behavior of Egypt. The first step entails the MB gaining a significant share of the next government in which it can push its agendas — foreign or domestic. For that to happen, free and fair elections must be held, which the MB will need to win by a large margin and there is no evidence that that is inevitable. Even if the MB were to emerge as a sizable bloc, it would still have to work with the military and all the other elements of the establishment, as well as other political forces, which can circumscribe its moves. The MB, being a rational actor, is also aware a poor country like Egypt cannot afford to alter course on the foreign policy front and risk the ire of the U.S.-led international community. The remarks of another senior MB leader, Mohammed Mursi, were very telling in this regard. Speaking to AP on this issue, Mursi said, "We in the Brotherhood are not living in dreamland." That said, the MB cannot ignore the issue, which would explain why its leaders say that the treaty could be put to national plebiscite and that it needs to be revised. A more likely outcome would be similar to what happened between Turkey and Israel in recent years where Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's government has grown more critical of the Jewish state and relations have become tense. What exact measures the MB will take vis-a-vis Israel are far from clear but what is certain is that there are enough arrestors in its path to power and using that power on crucial foreign policy matters, which could have significant regional and global implications.
RANE
SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Expert analysis when it matters most.

Get access to RANE's decision-grade geopolitical intelligence.