The Tunisian parliament on Jan. 13 reportedly called for the military to deploy throughout the entire country, two days after the army arrived in the capital to quell demonstrations. Public unrest, building steadily in the North African state since a public act of self-immolation by an unemployed 26-year-old on Dec. 17 sparked protests in the central town of Sidi Bouzid, has now spread to at least 17 cities in total. The call to deploy the army across the country follows the sacking of several top ministers and presidential advisers — and the reported resignation of Foreign Minister Kamel Morjane — in President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali’s government. The president himself has promised to deliver a nationally televised address on the crisis Jan. 13. All of these are signs of how destabilizing the protest movement has already proved, as overt displays of public dissatisfaction with the regime are extremely rare in Tunisia. While it is unclear whether the government is close to disintegration, the protests have reached a new level of intensity previously unseen in the government’s nearly three decades in power.

Roots of the Unrest

Tunisia is a small Mediterranean country of slightly more than 10 million people that has been ruled by Ben Ali since 1987. Unlike its western and eastern neighbors Algeria and Libya, it produces hardly any oil or natural gas — about 91,000 barrels per day (bpd) and 127 billion cubic feet, respectively, in 2009 — and exports even less (slightly more than 5,000 bpd of oil, and actually a net importer of gas). Rather, the Tunisian economy relies primarily on its role as a producer of basic manufactured goods for export to Europe, its largest trading partner, as well as tourism and remittances. While its economy did not go into recession during the global financial crisis, Tunisia does have a major problem with unemployment — officially 14 percent, though thought to be much higher in reality, especially so for skilled laborers — and like many coastal societies, it has an unequal distribution of wealth between the coast and the interior (opponents of the regime claim that upward of 90 percent of development projects are built along the coastal regions). (click here to enlarge image) These two primary economic factors are the underlying reasons for the current unrest. The actual trigger, though, was a public act of self-immolation that occurred in the central town of Sidi Bouzid on Dec. 17. An unemployed 26-year-old university graduate named Mohammed Bouazizi, barred by police for trying to earn money by selling produce from a roadside cart without a proper license, lit himself on fire as a political protest over his inability to find a job. Bouazizi's act sparked an outcry that began first in Sidi Bouzid, but rapidly led to protests and riots in at least 17 villages, towns and cities across Tunisia. The use of online social media helped spread information, leading to a government crackdown on the Internet. Bouazizi eventually died due to his injuries on Jan. 4, but by then he had become a national symbol of opposition. These protests against the government appear to have sprung up organically. Though various trade unions and other civil society groups took up their cause, there was no known political party behind all of them, nor did they have a clearly defined leader. This remains the case even now, several weeks later. Ben Ali has repeatedly blamed an unseen foreign hand for the provocations, but the way it began — a public act of self-immolation — suggests that the movement is an authentic reflection of the widespread animosity held toward the Ben Ali regime and its perceived corruption, especially among educated youths from the interior with bleak employment prospects.

Crackdown by the Government

While there have been at least two public suicide attempts — though none by self-immolation — carried out by Tunisian protesters since Bouazizi's death, the first death at the hands of the police did not occur until Dec. 24, when a teenager was shot and killed as thousands took to the streets in Sidi Bouzid. (Another man reportedly shot that day died six days later.) The first actual protests to hit Tunis came Dec. 27, but they were not serious enough to warrant a state of emergency and were handled effectively by riot police. Nonetheless, Ben Ali was under increasing pressure and sought to mollify the protesters by ordering a minor Cabinet reshuffle two days later. He sacked two government ministers, including the youth minister, as well as the Sidi Bouzid governor. This led to a brief calm, but it lasted a mere five days — clashes between protesters and police resumed shortly thereafter in the central towns of Kasserine and Thala. It was in these locations that the situation would take a much more dramatic turn during a weekend filled with violence from Jan. 8 to Jan. 10. A media blackout makes a true estimate hard to come by, but the government officially says that 18 protesters died during the demonstrations in Kasserine and Thala, all at the hands of police acting in self-defense. Others, of course, claim the police were to blame, and put the death toll at more than 30. Since then, the government's official death toll for all the protests combined has eclipsed 20, and some human rights groups place it at more than 60. Regardless of the exact number, it is the significant uptick in violence, as well as signs that Ben Ali's government could be on the verge of disintegration, that has given Tunisia a rare spotlight in the international news. Ben Ali gave a nationally televised address Jan. 10 in which he made a series of promises centered on the unemployment issue, but a vague pledge to create 300,000 jobs within two years did not come with any explanation of how he plans to do this. Two days later, Ben Ali ordered the firing of the controversial interior minister, who is in charge of the police, and also had Prime Minister Mohamed Ghannouchi announce that all those detained so far in the protests would be freed. Such concessions, however, have consistently been paired with Ben Ali's labeling the protesters as "terrorists." This, in combination with the reported decision to deploy the military across the country, shows that while he is prepared to give a bit, the president remains committed to using force to defend his rule. Media reports from Tunisia are contradictory, painting an unclear picture of the actual situation on the ground. There were rumors in recent days, for example, that a military coup had taken place, which turned out to be false. There has also been a report circulating for days that the army chief of staff was sacked by the president over a reluctance to use enough force against the protesters; this has yet to be confirmed by the government. What is clear is that the protests have reached a new level of intensity, and that Ben Ali is doing his utmost to put them down with force. Indeed, Jan. 13 media reports allege that rooftop snipers are currently firing at the protesters on the streets of Tunis, with one man already reported dead as a result. At the moment, Ben Ali appears to have the support of the army, but the challenge of keeping an increasingly frustrated population from escalating its actions against his regime may have just begun.