As the world mulls Thursday's naming of Russia as the 2018 World Cup host, as well as the Wednesday CNN interview with Russian Premier Vladimir Putin and the U.S. response, we should not overlook two new claims about the case of 10 Russian spies arrested in the United States in June. Answering a question from American high-profile interviewer Larry King, Putin said the "deep-cover agents" did not damage U.S. interests and would only have been activated in a crisis. Before the interview aired, The Washington Times journalist Bill Gertz published a report sourced to a retired intelligence official that the U.S. National Security Agency (NSA) was undergoing a counterintelligence investigation linked to Russians who were charged with acting as undeclared agents of a foreign country. In the murky world of state espionage, both countries are playing games of deception. A timeline helps to understand the statements surrounding the case, and broader U.S.-Russian relations. The 10 intelligence officers, working secretly in the United States, were arrested almost simultaneously on June 28 in a major FBI operation. A quick spy swap was orchestrated by July 9; the spies were returned to Moscow. Many have speculated on possible reasons for the arrest, from elements of the Obama administration pressuring Russia, to indications that Anna Chapman was alert to FBI surveillance and leaving the country, to the death of Russian defector Sergei Tretyakov. Perhaps all of these theories are incomplete — Russian daily Kommersant reported Nov. 11 and Interfax later clarified on Nov. 15 that a Russian defector, Col. Alexander Poteyev (or Shcherbakov), was responsible for providing the United States with intelligence that led to identifying the group. U.S.-Russian intelligence and counterintelligence activities have changed little in decades… But espionage is foremost an activity of deception, and like earlier espionage cases, the true source for identifying these Russian operatives may never be fully understood. As STRATFOR pointed out early on, a handful of these agents had been tracked for years in ongoing counterintelligence investigations, so something important triggered the sudden arrests. We can only expect major deception from all sides in this case as well. When Putin told King that the Russians were inactive, he deliberately disguised their real mission. Putin, a former KGB and FSB officer, ignored the fact that the 10 Russians were active in the United States. They had contacted each other, their handlers and attempted to recruit sources in Washington and New York. They also traveled abroad multiple times. Gertz's sources are engaged in their own counter-deception through a very rare leak. His article was prepared to question Putin's statements from the pre-recorded interview. A counterintelligence investigation within a U.S. intelligence service is a very serious security issue, especially if the FBI was brought in, as the source reported. The NSA is the most immune of Washington institutions to a culture of leaks. Information on the investigation would not be released if there were strong leads. It would alert suspects and cause them to go underground or flee. Instead, we suspect the leak occurred for one of three reasons: Officials within or overseen by the U.S. Department of Defense wanted to counteract Putin's claims of the spies’ relative innocence; second, U.S. counterintelligence investigators could be using the leak to "shake the trees" and watch for unusual communications traffic or activities by possible suspects; and this could be another move as Washington combats Russia's push to spread its side of the story, that it is back on the world stage as a counterbalance to the United States. Despite all of the theater, there have been discrete suggestions that Russia wants to prove it is back on the world stage — and what better way to show that than the arrest of Russian spies in the United States? The incident brought back the image of the Cold War, when one of the Soviet Union's better tools was espionage, of which Russians are very proud. Putin's entire interview on Larry King was meant to remind the U.S. public that Russia still has many capabilities to challenge the United States. He spoke of the vast nuclear arsenal, regional alliances and — of course — spies. This was directed at a U.S. audience. In Moscow's eyes, being able to get Washington's NSA to respond to Putin has only kept the subject alive. Internal security investigators in any intelligence organization are protecting their nation's most important secrets (at a much higher level than WikiLeaks). That the NSA let this out means something curious is afoot. Both Russian and U.S. officials are stating facts. The Defense Department is always investigating possible compromises, and the 10 Russian spies were not immediately threatening. But the full truth is not evident — the best deception always uses layers of facts to disguise disinformation. Putin identified the reality that every country "operates a foreign intelligence network." U.S.-Russian intelligence and counterintelligence activities have changed little in decades, and no doubt are back in public view.
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