Zimbabwe's ruling political party, the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF), will hold a leadership convention Dec. 15-18 to lay the groundwork for possible 2011 national elections. Despite efforts by internal ZANU-PF factions to determine a successor to President Robert Mugabe, no clear frontrunner has emerged, nor has it been ruled out that Mugabe will seek another presidential term. Mugabe has never had an absolute lock on presidential power, and factions have been competing to succeed him for years, but he has thus far been able to stay a step ahead of his rivals. However, he is now 86 years old, and his government is disliked by Western states because of its internal conduct, particularly its manipulation of the 2008 elections to secure a win over its political opposition, led by the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC). Western countries, including the United States, would roundly condemn another Mugabe presidential term. ZANU-PF rivals — and supporters — are aware of this and are likely planning to break with Mugabe to gain support so they can shape and lead the country’s international re-emergence. There are two leading ZANU-PF factions competing to succeed Mugabe. One faction is led by Defense Minister Emerson Mnangagwa, who seeks the presidency for himself. The other is led by Solomon Mujuru, the country's first post-independence army commander, who is seeking to install his wife, First Deputy President Joyce Mujuru, as president. Mnangagwa has tried to present himself as a leader making a break with Zimbabwe's recent history of intense political violence. At the Nov. 8 funeral of his brother, Albert Mnangagwa, in the town of Kwekwe, he made a conciliatory speech essentially trying to absolve himself of ZANU-PF-sanctioned violence such as that seen during the country's 2008 national elections. It is also significant to note that joining Mnangagwa at his brother's funeral were the assembled service chiefs of the Zimbabwe Defence Forces (ZDF) and State Security Minister Sydney Sekeramayi, while Mugabe and Mujuru were absent. The ruling elite in Zimbabwe is made up of so-called "securocrats" who command the country's armed forces, and the Nov. 8 funeral gathered the top serving securocrats in support of one of their own. However, despite this showing and other developments seen to benefit Mnangagwa, a STRATFOR source in Zimbabwe says it is too early to say an alignment of securocrats against Mujuru — or Mugabe — has taken hold. Mnangagwa may have made some political and economic gains among the ZANU-PF inner circle since the June 23 move to begin exporting diamonds from the country's eastern Marange fields. However, there have only been a few private sales of diamonds from these fields to date, and the fields' opening is still being contested. The Kimberley Process Certification Scheme is still withholding a formal endorsement of the sale of Zimbabwean diamonds, which the Europeans say are akin to blood diamonds and only benefit Zimbabwean hardliners such as Mnangagwa and his supporters. While the MDC remains a vocal part of Zimbabwe's coalition government, its overall leader, Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai, has not gained the broader support that would indicate he is a credible candidate to become Zimbabwe's next president. Certainly, all factions of ZANU-PF are opposed to any MDC traction, and Mugabe himself has said that MDC participation in government should end with possible 2011 elections. In addition to this internal battle, there are regional efforts to shape Zimbabwe's post-Mugabe regime. The country, rich in minerals and agriculture, is a sort of geopolitical prize over which South Africa and Angola have been fighting as a way to extend their regional ambitions and counter one another. Mnangagwa has traveled to Angola to develop a closer relationship with Luanda, while South Africa remains the lead mediator between ZANU-PF and the MDC-led political opposition. Both Luanda and Pretoria have made efforts to retain influence over developments in Harare. There is currently no exact date set for elections, but Zimbabwe's political parties are arguing over whether and how elections could be held in mid-2011. Despite ZANU-PF's posturing, however, EU Ambassador to Zimbabwe Aldo Dell'Ariccia was reported Nov. 11 as saying it would be hard to ensure that 2011 elections are conducted freely and fairly, and that sanctions against the ZANU-PF elite will likely be renewed when they come up again in February. Currently, Mnangagwa and his backers, whether among fellow ZANU-PF securocrats or possibly the Angolans, have not achieved a clear endorsement to succeed Mugabe. Conciliatory rhetoric has not changed domestic or donors' minds, nor has private diamond-driven economic gains. The battle within ZANU-PF continues — Mnangagwa's rivals and enemies are not giving up, and that includes Mugabe, who has not yet revealed plans to step down.